Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 33

Date: 27 April 2025, Sunday


	Ugento		Matera

	1	X	2
	1.88	3.2	3.6
	1.88	3.25	3.85
	1.84	3.6	3.32
	1.86	3.74	3.55
	1.75	3.48	4.17
	1.88	3.25	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.34)	3.42 ↑ (3.1)	3.72 ↑ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ugento
49.1%

Draw
26.5%

Matera
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

29.6%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

29.5%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ugento has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ugento's performance.

Matera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Matera might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ugento than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ugento that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matera than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matera could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ugento - Matera Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ugento (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Ugento (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ugento (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
23', 0 - 1, Bello B. ⚽,
30', 1 - 1, Sanchez J. (Pen),
40', 1 - 2, Giordani G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
78', Sanchez J. 🟥,
79', Medina M. 🟥,
84', 1 - 3, Di Piazza M. ⚽,
90+2', 1 - 4, Sicurella G. ⚽,

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 13 in the zone Serie D ~ Group H (Play Out: ) and 7).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Ugento will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Ugento won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Ugento
Italian Serie D - Group H
17.04.25	Città di Fasano - Ugento	0:2 ✺
13.04.25	Ugento - Martina Calcio	2:0 ✺
06.04.25	Città di Brindisi - Ugento	3:0 ✺
30.03.25	Ugento - Casarano	2:3 ✺
09.03.25	Ugento - Gravina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.2 WWLLW
- FC Matera
Italian Serie D - Group H
17.04.25	Matera - Angri	3:1 ✺
13.04.25	Matera - Virtus Francavilla	2:2 ✺
06.04.25	Costa D`Amalfi - Matera	4:2 ✺
30.03.25	Matera - Città di Brindisi	2:2 ✺
23.03.25	Città di Fasano - Matera	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group H
15.12.24	Matera - Ugento	1:0

Ugento - Matera: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide