Match Info

K3 League - Round 21

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Ulsan Complex Stadium (Ulsan)


	Ulsan Citizen		Changwon City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.6	3.25	1.85
	3.95	3.15	1.85	Watch
	4.49	3.25	1.96
	3.76	3.32	1.99	Watch
	3.82	3.51	1.91	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.92 ↑ (3.5)	3.3 ↓ (3.45)	1.91 ↑ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulsan Citizen
23.6%

Draw
28.1%

Changwon City
48.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.8%

26.2%

48%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.5%

25.9%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulsan Citizen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Changwon City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulsan Citizen than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Changwon City than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Ulsan Citizen - Changwon City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Changwon (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
44', 0 - 1, Kim K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ulsan Citizen won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Changwon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Changwon has had a series of home games.

In this match, Changwon is the team to beat.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Ulsan Citizen won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulsan Citizen won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulsan Citizen FC
South Korean K3 League
17.08.25	Chuncheon - Ulsan Citizen	0:0 ✺
25.07.25	Ulsan Citizen - Paju Frontier	0:1 ✺
20.07.25	Ulsan Citizen - Gangneung	1:0 ✺
13.07.25	Gimhae - Ulsan Citizen	0:0 ✺
05.07.25	Ulsan Citizen - Daejeon Korail	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 TLWTL
- Changwon City FC
South Korean K3 League
01.08.25	Changwon City - Jeonbuk 2	3:1 ✺
27.07.25	Changwon City - Yangpyeong	1:0 ✺
20.07.25	Changwon City - Pocheon	1:2 ✺
13.07.25	Siheung - Changwon City	2:0 ✺
06.07.25	Changwon City - Mokpo City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K3 League
27.04.25	Changwon City - Ulsan Citizen	2:1
07.09.24	Changwon City - Ulsan Citizen	1:0
11.05.24	Ulsan Citizen - Changwon City	0:4
23.06.23	Changwon City - Ulsan Citizen	1:2
11.03.23	Ulsan Citizen - Changwon City	3:0
17.09.22	Ulsan Citizen - Changwon City	0:2
13.05.22	Changwon City - Ulsan Citizen	1:0

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