Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 16

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Campo Cha das Padeiras (Santarem)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	União de Santarém		Atlético CP

	1	X	2
	2.92	2.78	2.42
	3.04	2.87	2.55	Watch
	3.1	2.7	2.38
	3.06	2.82	2.38	Watch
	3.14	2.75	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↓ (3.23)	2.78 ↓ (2.82)	2.41 ↑ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

União de Santarém
29.7%

Draw
32.6%

Atlético CP
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

32.3%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

33.9%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

União de Santarém has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Atlético CP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for União de Santarém than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético CP than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

União de Santarém - Atlético CP Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Hidalgo N. (G) 4. Pereira P. 30. Reis N. 5. Rodeia M. 29. Teixeira R. 16. Grilo M. (C) 6. Nanco I. 3. Joao Ricardo 20. Ventura B. 9. Eberth 17. Aguas G.	1. Ferreira F. (G) 31. Paulinho (C) 23. Almeida B. 4. Henriques D. 5. Durand V. 18. Dias R. 8. Sousa C. 7. Barandas M. 10. Caleb 96. Herrera J. 49. Suker H.
Substitutes
18. Bamba 49. Castro T. 11. Goncalves E. F. 90. Koume S. 10. Madeira T. 24. Medalli N. 58. Monteiro D. 78. Pedro Teixeira (G) 19. Silva R.	11. Delcio 99. Dias R. (G) 3. Gonzalez F. 60. Marques R. 6. Pascoal C. 20. Pereira R. 77. Santos R. 17. Silva D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Aguas G. ⚽,
33', Henriques D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
64', Aguas G. ↓, Goncalves E. F. ↑,
65', Paulinho ↓, Pereira R. ↑,
65', Herrera J. ↓, Pascoal C. ↑,
74', Teixeira R. ↓, Monteiro D. ↑,
74', Eberth ↓, Bamba ↑,
76', 🟨,
79', Sousa C. ↓, Santos R. ↑,
80', Henriques D. ↓, Marques R. ↑,
80', 1 - 1, Caleb ⚽,
83', Ventura B. ↓, Madeira T. ↑,
89', 🟨,
90+1', Barandas M. ↓, Silva D. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: ) and 5 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

Santarém is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlético CP's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Santarém won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Santarém won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- União de Santarém
Portuguese Liga 3
04.01.26	União de Santarém - 1 Dezembro	1:0 ✺
19.12.25	Caldas - União de Santarém	0:2 ✺
14.12.25	União de Santarém - Amora	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Covilhã - União de Santarém	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	União de Santarém - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWTTT
- Atlético CP
Portuguese Liga 3
04.01.26	Atlético CP - Académica Coimbra	1:4 ✺
20.12.25	1 Dezembro - Atlético CP	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Atlético CP - Lusitano GC	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Caldas - Atlético CP	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Atlético CP - Belenenses	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
04.10.25	Atlético CP - União de Santarém	1:2
10.11.24	Atlético CP - União de Santarém	1:0
10.08.24	União de Santarém - Atlético CP	2:0

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