Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 15

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Campo Cha das Padeiras (Santarem)


	União de Santarém		1 Dezembro

	1	X	2
	2.15	2.92	3.25
	2.32	3.05	3.21	Watch
	2.18	3.22	3.33	Watch
	2.1	3	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.04)	3.05 ↑ (2.94)	3.28 ↓ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

União de Santarém
41.9%

Draw
30.1%

1 Dezembro
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

30.9%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

30.7%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

União de Santarém has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

1 Dezembro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for União de Santarém than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for 1 Dezembro than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

União de Santarém - 1 Dezembro Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Hidalgo N. (G) 17. Aguas G. 49. Castro T. 9. Eberth 16. Grilo M. 3. Joao Ricardo 58. Monteiro D. 6. Nanco I. 4. Pereira P. 30. Reis N. 5. Rodeia M.	1. Duarte F. (G) 79. Cardoso D. 24. Edu 7. Ferreira D. 26. Freitas J. 44. Gomes C. 6. Lima P. 33. Mane L. 23. Menezes L. 2. Ramos P. 55. Vito
Substitutes
18. Bamba 11. Goncalves E. F. 10. Madeira T. 79. Marcante E. 24. Medalli N. 78. Pedro Teixeira (G) 19. Silva R. 29. Teixeira R. 20. Ventura B.	96. Arroyo J. 19. Dede 22. Dias G. 20. Harramiz S. 85. Infante A. 50. Karvounis P. 47. Oliveira J. (G) 45. Quintino da Silva

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Nanco I. 🟨,
40', Edu 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ferreira D. ↓, Dede ↑,
46', Castro T. ↓, Ventura B. ↑,
46', Monteiro D. ↓, Teixeira R. ↑,
46', Aguas G. ↓, Goncalves E. F. ↑,
61', Cardoso D. ↓, Harramiz S. ↑,
64', Vito 🟨,
67', Vito ↓, Infante A. ↑,
74', Eberth ↓, Bamba ↑,
80', 1 - 0, Goncalves E. F. ⚽, Ventura B. (A),
81', Freitas J. 🟨,
84', Ramos P. ↓, Karvounis P. ↑,
84', Menezes L. ↓, Arroyo J. ↑,
90+2', Grilo M. ↓, Medalli N. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santarém won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, 1 Dezembro has had a series of home games.

In this match, Santarém is a strong favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Santarém won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 1:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Santarém won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- União de Santarém
Portuguese Liga 3
19.12.25	Caldas - União de Santarém	0:2 ✺
14.12.25	União de Santarém - Amora	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Covilhã - União de Santarém	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	União de Santarém - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Lusitano GC - União de Santarém	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WTTTL
- SU 1 Dezembro
Portuguese Liga 3
20.12.25	1 Dezembro - Atlético CP	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	1 Dezembro - Caldas	2:0 ✺
06.12.25	Amora - 1 Dezembro	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	1 Dezembro - Covilhã	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	1 Dezembro - Leiria	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
28.09.25	1 Dezembro - União de Santarém	0:0
05.01.25	União de Santarém - 1 Dezembro	1:0
14.09.24	1 Dezembro - União de Santarém	1:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
02.04.23	1 Dezembro - União de Santarém	0:0
11.12.22	União de Santarém - 1 Dezembro	1:1
07.02.21	1 Dezembro - União de Santarém	0:2
01.12.20	União de Santarém - 1 Dezembro	2:0

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