Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 14

Date: 19 December 2025, Friday

Location: Campo da Mata (Caldas da Rainha)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Caldas		União de Santarém

	1	X	2
	2.08	3.05	3.3
	2.04	3.26	3.9
	2	3.33	3.71	Watch
	2.05	3	3.4
	2.03	3.08	3.52
	2	3	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.97)	3.12 ↓ (3.13)	3.57 ↓ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caldas
45%

Draw
29.3%

União de Santarém
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

29.1%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

29.3%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

União de Santarém has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caldas than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for União de Santarém than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Caldas - União de Santarém Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Soares W. (G) 7. Alexandre R. 66. Carreira R. 9. Chaves G. 8. Clemente D. 14. Maneta D. 30. Monteiro E. 6. Palmerio M. 4. Pipo 3. Pires Gomes J. R. 33. Tarzan	22. Hidalgo N. (G) 17. Aguas G. 49. Castro T. 9. Eberth 16. Grilo M. (C) 3. Joao Ricardo 58. Monteiro D. 6. Nanco I. 4. Pereira P. 30. Reis N. 5. Rodeia M.
Substitutes
12. Almeida D. (G) 23. Catarino T. 87. Ewandro Santos 25. Farinha L. 79. Gata J. 17. Goncas 10. Januario 77. Lopes D. 2. Yordy Marcelo	18. Bamba 7. Fuller T. 10. Madeira T. 79. Marcante E. 24. Medalli N. 15. Midoes R. 78. Pedro Teixeira (G) 19. Silva R. 20. Ventura B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Pereira P. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Aguas G. ↓, Ventura B. ↑,
46', Pipo ↓, Ewandro Santos ↑,
55', 0 - 2, Ventura B. ⚽,
57', 🟨,
64', Monteiro E. ↓, Lopes D. ↑,
64', Chaves G. ↓, Gata J. ↑,
74', Alexandre R. ↓, Farinha L. ↑,
76', 🟨,
78', Castro T. ↓, Madeira T. ↑,
89', Eberth 🟨,
89', Pires Gomes J. R. 🟨,
90', Eberth ↓, Bamba ↑,
90+1', Hidalgo N. 🟨,
90+5', Grilo M. ↓, Medalli N. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: ) and 9 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caldas won 2.

Caldas has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Santarém has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Caldas might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Caldas won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 0.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Caldas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 0.8:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Caldas
Portuguese Liga 3
14.12.25	1 Dezembro - Caldas	2:0 ✺
07.12.25	Caldas - Atlético CP	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Caldas - Amora	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Tondela - Caldas	0:1 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
09.11.25	Covilhã - Caldas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 LLLWL
- União de Santarém
Portuguese Liga 3
14.12.25	União de Santarém - Amora	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Covilhã - União de Santarém	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	União de Santarém - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Lusitano GC - União de Santarém	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Belenenses - União de Santarém	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
24.09.25	União de Santarém - Caldas	0:1
12.04.25	Caldas - União de Santarém	0:1
16.03.25	União de Santarém - Caldas	0:0
15.12.24	Caldas - União de Santarém	0:3
01.09.24	União de Santarém - Caldas	0:1
01.05.22	Caldas - União de Santarém	2:3
09.04.22	União de Santarém - Caldas	2:2

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