Match Info

Primera B - Clausura - Round 13

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Sierra Nevada (Santa Marta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Unión Magdalena		Independiente Valle del Cauca

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.83	3.20	3.80
	1.95	3.15	3.75	Watch
	1.85	3.43	4.59
	1.93	3.28	4.04	Watch
	1.78	3.35	4.50
	1.82	3.44	4.38	Watch
	1.84	3.30	4.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.75)	3.31 ↓ (3.51)	4.15 ↓ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Magdalena
49.8%

Draw
28%

Independiente Valle del Cauca
22.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

53%

26.4%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.9%

28.3%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Magdalena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Independiente Valle del Cauca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Unión Magdalena, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Valle del Cauca than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Unión Magdalena - Independiente Valle del Cauca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Tasso M. (G) 2. Ballesteros M. 7. Blanco R. 18. Molina F. 19. Mosquera F. (C) 6. Ortiz D. 5. Penaloza J. 8. Prado V. 15. Rodriguez R. 25. Sagrera W. 16. Surmay O.	12. Mena L. (G) 16. De Arco H. 5. Diaz J. 8. Diaz T. (C) 3. Ferrer D. 9. Garcia A. 6. Moreyra H. 29. Palacios J. 25. Pena F. 17. Quinonez L. 4. Rodriguez J.
Substitutes
38. Alvarez W. 32. Amu F. 1. Cabezas V. (G) 4. Delvalle R. 14. Farias J. 22. Giraldo J. 9. Iguaran C. 29. Pimienta J. 28. Salazar K.	27. Ampudia J. 11. Farias L. 35. Gomez O. 7. Mena H. 34. Pajaro J. 15. Perdomo J. 1. Tamara J. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Garcia A. ⚽,
20', Prado V. ↓, Farias J. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Rodriguez R. ↓, Iguaran C. ↑,
67', Moreyra H. ↓, Pajaro J. ↑,
71', 1 - 1, Blanco R. ⚽,
77', Diaz J. ↓, Ampudia J. ↑,
77', Garcia A. ↓, Farias L. ↑,
83', Farias J. 🟨,
87', Diaz T. ↓, Mena H. ↑,
87', Quinonez L. ↓, Perdomo J. ↑,
90+6', Pajaro J. 🟨,

Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 13th and 1st in the Promotion - Primera B (Clausura - Quadrangular: )).

Unión Magdalena has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Ind Valle del Cauca shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Ind Valle del Cauca could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Unión Magdalena is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Unión Magdalena has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:0.

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ind. Valle del Cauca ✔	14	8	4	2	20:8	12	28
11	U. Magdalena	14	4	5	5	14:15	-1	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Primera B
11.10.26	Unión Magdalena - Leones	2:2 ✺
07.10.26	Boca Juniors de Cali - Unión Magdalena	1:1 ✺
03.10.26	Real Santander - Unión Magdalena	1:3 ✺
29.09.26	Unión Magdalena - Real Cartagena	1:1 ✺
Colombian Copa
25.09.26	Unión Magdalena - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TTWTT
- Independiente Valle del Cauca
Colombian Primera B
08.10.26	Independiente Valle del Cauca - Tigres	1:1 ✺
03.10.26	Patriotas - Independiente Valle del Cauca	0:1 ✺
28.09.26	Independiente Valle del Cauca - Orsomarso	4:3 ✺
22.09.26	Independiente Valle del Cauca - Internacional de Palmira	0:1 ✺
15.09.26	Barranquilla - Independiente Valle del Cauca	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
30.03.26	Independiente Valle del Cauca - Unión Magdalena	0:2

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