Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 18 August 2026, Tuesday

Location: Claro Arena (Santiago de Chile)

Referee: Roldan W. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
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Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Canada	fubo Sports Network
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Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2


	Universidad Católica		Estudiantes La Plata

	1	X	2
	3.10	2.90	2.55	Watch
	3.10	2.90	2.40
	3.30	2.88	2.35	Watch
	3.26	2.99	2.55
	3.35	3.01	2.4
	3.15	2.90	2.50
	2.94	2.92	2.70	Watch
	3.25	3.05	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↑ (2.46)	2.94 ↓ (3.12)	2.5 ↓ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad Católica
29.8%

Draw
32.2%

Estudiantes La Plata
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

30.3%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

30%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Católica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Universidad Católica's form might have worsened.

Estudiantes La Plata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Estudiantes La Plata's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad Católica than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Universidad Católica, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estudiantes La Plata than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Estudiantes La Plata, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	44.4%	33.3%

Universidad Católica - Estudiantes La Plata Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Uni Católica will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Estudiantes will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Uni Católica (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Uni Católica (2.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Uni Católica (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bernedo V. (G) 5. Farias A. 2. Gonzalez D. 19. Ampuero B. (C) 3. Mena E. 8. Zuqui F. 20. Valencia J. 25. Corral D. 14. Martinez J. A. 22. Gomez M. 7. Giani J.	16. Muslera F. (G) 40. Mancuso E. 4. Nunez S. 24. Palacios T. 13. Benedetti G. 21. Piovi L. 22. Castro A. 31. Rodriguez B. 10. Palacios T. 17. Burgos J. 9. Carrillo G. (C)
Substitutes
6. Arancibia S. 13. Canales A. 34. Daza F. 38. Giron N. 39. L’Huillier N. 17. Medel G. 27. Melo D. (G) 11. Montes C. 10. Palavecino M. 43. Perez A. 4. Perez I. 42. Pino N.	28. Aguirre B. 27. Alario L. 18. Cetre E. 32. Correa J. 26. Funes Mori R. 8. Gabriel Neves 19. Gaich A. 1. Iacovich F. (G) 20. Meza E. 29. Perez Fabricio 35. Pierani V. 7. Sosa J.
Coaches
Garnero D.	Medina A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', Palacios T. ↓, Correa J. ↑,
44', 0 - 1, Correa J. ⚽, Rodriguez B. (A),
45+4', Benedetti G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Corral D. ↓, Montes C. ↑,
48', Valencia J. 🟨,
50', Farias A. 🟨,
53', 0 - 2, Carrillo G. ⚽, Mancuso E. (A),
59', Farias A. ↓, Arancibia S. ↑,
59', Martinez J. A. ↓, Palavecino M. ↑,
60', Castro A. ↓, Gabriel Neves ↑,
60', Burgos J. ↓, Cetre E. ↑,
60', Rodriguez B. ↓, Meza E. ↑,
65', Palacios T. 🟨,
71', Gomez M. ↓, Perez I. ↑,
80', Valencia J. ↓, Canales A. ↑,
82', Mancuso E. ↓, Pierani V. ↑,
83', 0 - 3, Carrillo G. ⚽, Cetre E. (A),
86', Piovi L. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Uni Católica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Uni Católica: Arancibia S. (Inactive) Asta-Buruaga T. (Knee Injury) Diaz J. (Injury) Montes C. (Inactive) Rossel J. (Inactive) Sekgota J. (Inactive) Valencia D. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Estudiantes: Arzamendia S. (Knee Injury) Gonzalez Pirez L. (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Uni Católica won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Estudiantes L.P.: 5.48% U. Catolica: 0.99%

Last Results with these Odds

Universidad Católica - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 38.45%, but this team recently wins 80% of matches with these odds.

Estudiantes La Plata - the odds 3.02 are the expected chance of winning is 31.28%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad Católica
Copa Libertadores
11.08.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Universidad Católica	1:1 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
07.08.26	Universidad Católica - Cobresal	2:0 ✺
02.08.26	Deportes Concepción - Universidad Católica	3:0 ✺
25.07.26	Universidad Católica - Deportes La Serena	3:3 ✺
Chilean Cup
11.07.26	San Luis de Quillota - Universidad Católica	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWLTL
- Estudiantes La Plata
Argentinian Liga Profesional
15.08.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Gimnasia La Plata	4:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
11.08.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Universidad Católica	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
08.08.26	Deportivo Riestra - Estudiantes La Plata	2:0 ✺
05.08.26	Boca Juniors - Estudiantes La Plata	1:0 ✺
01.08.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Defensa y Justicia	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
11.08.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Universidad Católica	1:1

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