Match Info

Copa Paulista - Play Offs - Final

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio Hermínio Ometto (Araras) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	10:00	Xsports


	União São João		São José-SP

	1	X	2
	3.25	2.87	2.25
	3.20	2.75	2.22	Watch
	3.34	2.73	2.24
	3.35	2.87	2.27
	3.30	2.70	2.20
	3.36	2.80	2.20
	3.25	2.85	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↑ (2.84)	2.8 ↓ (3.1)	2.23 ↓ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

União São João
27.4%

Draw
32.3%

São José-SP
40.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.4%

29.7%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

29.7%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

União São João has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

São José-SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for União São João than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São José-SP than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

União São João - São José SP Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Souto (G) 11. Alex Oliveira 9. Bruninho (C) 10. Bruno Menezes 3. Felipe Torres 4. Fernando Brito 2. Leo Machado 13. Leo Souza 8. Maycon Lucas 5. Ruan Marcos 6. Tallys	22. Joao Lucas (G) 28. Carlos Henrique 17. Fernando Neto 34. Guilherme Santos 11. Jeffinho 4. Joao Ramos 8. Mauricio 27. Natan Masiero 9. Neto Oliveira 7. Thomaz 3. Wesley Rodrigues (C)
Substitutes
. Batista Santos V. J. 16. Bruno Miguel 15. Bruno Re 20. Eliel . Leo Steffen (G) . Matheus Castilho 17. Ronaldo 14. Sabia E. 18. Wagner Gomes . Warlei	14. Gabriel Ramos 32. Guilherme (G) 16. Guilherme Martineli 30. Guilherme Matheus 6. Iury 5. Jeferson Lima 19. Joao Guilherme 20. Lucas Andre 33. Micael 1. Rafael Puridade (G) 18. Tche Tche 21. Ygor

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', Thomaz 🟨,
17', 0 - 1, Thomaz ⚽,
21', Tallys 🟨,
32', Bruninho ↓, Warlei ↑,
45', 1 - 1, Felipe Torres ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Natan Masiero ↓, Jeferson Lima ↑,
53', Bruno Menezes ↓, Wagner Gomes ↑,
63', Jeffinho ↓, Tche Tche ↑,
63', Mauricio ↓, Lucas Andre ↑,

Preview

First leg.

União São João has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

São José-SP is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

União São João could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Last Results with these Odds

São José-SP - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 37.98%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- União São João de Araras
Brazilian Copa Paulista
03.10.26	União São João - Grêmio Prudente	2:1 ✺
26.09.26	Grêmio Prudente - União São João	0:0 ✺
21.09.26	CA Juventus - União São João	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	União São João - CA Juventus	1:0 ✺
04.09.26	Bandeirante - União São João	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WTTWL
- São José-SP
Brazilian Copa Paulista
03.10.26	São José-SP - EC Noroeste	1:0 ✺
27.09.26	EC Noroeste - São José-SP	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	São José-SP - Comercial SP	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Comercial SP - São José-SP	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	São José-SP - São Caetano	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WTWTT

União São João - São José-SP