Match Info

Copa Paulista - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Palma Travassos (Ribeirao Preto)


	Comercial SP		São José-SP

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.10	2.10
	2.70	3.30	2.25	Watch
	3.34	3.07	2.06
	3.36	3.23	2.09
	3.30	3.00	2.03
	3.31	3.14	2.08
	3.15	3.15	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↑ (2.75)	3.14 ↓ (3.2)	2.1 ↓ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Comercial SP
28.2%

Draw
28.7%

São José-SP
43.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

28.5%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

28.1%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Comercial SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

São José-SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Comercial SP than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São José-SP than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Comercial SP - São José SP Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lee (C) 6. Balbino 8. Couto L. 4. Cristopher 10. Filipinho 7. Gustavo Henrique 2. Luis Fernando 9. Matheus Arcanjo 5. Matheus F. 3. Paim 11. Robinho	22. Joao Lucas (G) 28. Carlos Henrique 25. Euller 34. Guilherme Santos 11. Jeffinho 8. Mauricio 27. Natan Masiero 9. Neto Oliveira 7. Thomaz 10. Vitinho 3. Wesley R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', 🟨,
22', 🟨,
26', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

First leg.

Comercial SP is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

São José-SP is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

São José-SP may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Comercial SP won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Comercial SP won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Last Results with these Odds

São José-SP - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 38.43%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Comercial de Ribeirão Preto
Brazilian Copa Paulista
05.09.26	EC São Bernardo - Comercial SP	2:1 penalties ✺
31.08.26	Comercial SP - EC São Bernardo	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	EC Noroeste - Comercial SP	4:3 ✺
18.08.26	Comercial SP - Piracicaba	0:1 ✺
31.07.26	Comercial SP - União São João	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWLLL
- São José-SP
Brazilian Copa Paulista
22.08.26	São José-SP - São Caetano	0:0 ✺
15.08.26	EC São Bernardo - São José-SP	2:3 ✺
02.08.26	Santo André - São José-SP	1:0 ✺
25.07.26	São José-SP - EC São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
20.07.26	São Caetano - São José-SP	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Paulista
13.09.25	São José-SP - Comercial SP	0:1
07.09.25	Comercial SP - São José-SP	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
17.02.24	São José-SP - Comercial SP	4:0

Comercial SP - São José-SP: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide