Match Info

Copa Paulista - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Martins Pereira (Sao Jose dos Campos)


	São José-SP		EC Noroeste

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.10	3.20
	2.05	3.05	3.2	Watch
	2.19	3.05	3.19
	2.22	3.02	3.28
	2.14	2.75	3.1
	2.24	3.38	3.24	Watch
	2.06	3.1	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 (2.15)	3.06 ↓ (3.58)	3.2 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São José-SP
42.1%

Draw
29.6%

EC Noroeste
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

26.7%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

27.1%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São José-SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

EC Noroeste has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São José-SP than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for EC Noroeste than the current prediction. (+1%)

São José SP - EC Noroeste Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Joao Lucas (G) 28. Carlos Henrique 17. Fernando Neto 34. Guilherme Santos 11. Jeffinho 4. Joao Ramos 8. Mauricio 27. Natan Masiero 9. Neto Oliveira 7. Thomaz 3. Wesley Rodrigues (C)	1. Diogo Silva (G) 77. Bruno Lopes 11. Elicley 23. Igor 18. Lucas Douglas 13. Luiz Henrique 44. Maycon 72. Rodolfo 33. Ronaldo Alves (C) 6. Vinicius Guedes 95. Yuri Ferraz
Substitutes
14. Gabriel Ramos 32. Guilherme (G) 30. Guilherme 16. Guilherme Martineli 6. Iury 5. Jeferson Lima 19. Joao Guilherme 31. Kelvin Esquerda 20. Lucas Andre 33. Micael 1. Rafael Puridade (G) 18. Tche Tche	20. Caua A. 99. Henrique LIma (G) 16. Joao Prado 10. Leo Ceara 30. Leocovick 5. Lucas Costa 17. Matheus Goias 27. Pacheco 7. Pedro Felipe 9. Rafael Silva 22. Renan Araujo 15. Taua

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Natan Masiero 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 🟨,
63', Vinicius Guedes 🟨,
89', 1 - 0, Jeferson Lima ⚽,
90+8', 🟨,
90+9', 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-1.

Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

São José-SP is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, São José-SP has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:2 (averaging 1.5:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for São José-SP against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:1 goals.

Last Results with these Odds

São José-SP - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 44.4%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São José-SP
Brazilian Copa Paulista
27.09.26	EC Noroeste - São José-SP	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	São José-SP - Comercial SP	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Comercial SP - São José-SP	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	São José-SP - São Caetano	0:0 ✺
15.08.26	EC São Bernardo - São José-SP	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TWTTW
- EC Noroeste
Brazilian Copa Paulista
27.09.26	EC Noroeste - São José-SP	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	EC Noroeste - EC Primavera	1:0 penalties ✺
12.09.26	EC Primavera - EC Noroeste	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	EC Noroeste - Comercial SP	4:3 ✺
19.08.26	União São João - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Paulista
27.09.26	EC Noroeste - São José-SP	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
17.01.24	São José-SP - EC Noroeste	2:1

São José-SP - EC Noroeste: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide