Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 17

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Sierra Nevada (Santa Marta)

Referee: Ortega C. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional, ViX Latin America
Usa	Fanatiz


	Unión Magdalena		Once Caldas

	1	X	2
	2.88	3	2.5	Watch
	2.8	3	2.4
	2.85	3.15	2.55	Watch
	3.05	3.05	2.62
	2.94	2.96	2.58	Watch
	2.88	3	2.5
	2.81	3.11	2.56	Watch
	2.85	3.15	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.5)	3.05 ↓ (3.22)	2.53 ↓ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Magdalena
32.4%

Draw
30.6%

Once Caldas
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

29.1%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

30.1%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Magdalena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Once Caldas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Unión Magdalena, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Unión Magdalena - Once Caldas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Gomez Tovar G. E. (G) 4. Murillo D. 25. Penaloza J. 5. Payares M. 30. Mosquera D. 8. Sanchez V. 28. Mercado J. 16. Sencion Rodriguez C. E. 22. Barreto O. 17. Blanco R. 10. Sarmiento J.	12. Aguirre J. (G) 24. Palacios L. 22. Cuesta Santos J. D. 3. Malagon J. 33. Patino J. 5. Rojas I. 18. Riquett J. 19. Garcia M. 7. Barrios M. 20. Garcia Castillo A. 17. Moreno D.
Substitutes
19. Diaz K. 21. Marquez R. 18. Molina F. 14. Pinto J. 1. Restrepo E. (G) 26. Tello J. 27. Trujillo J.	9. Alvarez G. 8. Beltran E. 15. Castano J. 16. Contreras J. 2. Garcia J. 35. Parra J. (G) 28. Zuleta M.
Coaches
Garcia A.	Herrera H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Sencion Rodriguez C. E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Palacios L. ↓, Zuleta M. ↑,
62', 0 - 1, Moreno D. ⚽,
64', Garcia Castillo A. ↓, Beltran E. ↑,
66', Barreto O. ↓, Pinto J. ↑,
66', Sencion Rodriguez C. E. ↓, Molina F. ↑,
66', Blanco R. ↓, Marquez R. ↑,
68', Mercado J. 🟥,
70', Garcia M. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
77', Barrios M. ↓, Contreras J. ↑,
77', Moreno D. ↓, Alvarez G. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 0.

Recent form of Unión Magdalena has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Once Caldas is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Unión Magdalena may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Once Caldas has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:8. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Unión Magdalena won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Primera A
26.04.25	Envigado - Unión Magdalena	2:1 ✺
20.04.25	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:1 ✺
16.04.25	Rionegro Águilas - Unión Magdalena	1:1 ✺
12.04.25	Unión Magdalena - Deportivo Pereira	2:2 ✺
05.04.25	Atlético Nacional - Unión Magdalena	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LTTTL
- Once Caldas
Colombian Primera A
01.05.25	Envigado - Once Caldas	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.04.25	GVCD San José - Once Caldas	2:3 ✺
Colombian Primera A
19.04.25	Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas	2:0 ✺
16.04.25	Once Caldas - Deportivo La Equidad	3:0 ✺
12.04.25	Boyacá Chicó - Once Caldas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
18.09.23	Unión Magdalena - Once Caldas	1:1
08.04.23	Once Caldas - Unión Magdalena	1:1
07.07.22	Unión Magdalena - Once Caldas	2:2
22.01.22	Once Caldas - Unión Magdalena	1:1
29.10.19	Once Caldas - Unión Magdalena	3:1
05.05.19	Unión Magdalena - Once Caldas	1:0

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