Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 15

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Belarus	04:10	Sport TV
Colombia	20:10	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Russia	04:10	Viju+ Sport
South America	—	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	21:10	Fanatiz, FOX Deportes, FOX Deportes, Fubo Latino 2


	Independiente Medellín		Once Caldas

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.40	3.50	Watch
	2.05	3.30	3.30
	2.02	3.45	3.65	Watch
	2.13	3.50	3.58
	1.97	3.41	3.8	Watch
	2.10	3.40	3.40
	2.13	3.45	3.55	Watch
	2.06	3.35	3.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.96)	3.41 ↓ (3.55)	3.52 ↓ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
45.6%

Draw
27.7%

Once Caldas
26.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

48%

26.5%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

26.4%

25.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Once Caldas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ind Medellín (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ichazo S. (G) 30. Palacios H. 39. Escorcia L. 5. Varela J. 18. Fabra F. 16. Loboa H. 6. Moreno D. (C) 26. Mena Perea E. 21. Martegani A. 20. Montano J. 11. Yony Gonzalez	99. Parra J. (G) 22. Cuesta Santos J. D. 2. Cardona J. 30. Londono D. 33. Patino J. 5. Nieto J. 9. Gomez P. 7. Barrios M. 42. Quinones J. 23. Colorado A. (C) 14. Zapata Ramirez J. A.
Substitutes
10. Catano D. 25. Chaux E. (G) 24. Erazo N. 34. Klinger K. 90. Larrosa E. 32. Lucumi C. 4. Mantilla K. 31. Moreno D. 14. Perlaza B.	15. Alvarado J. 12. Camargo J. (G) 16. Castano J. 21. Guzman H. 17. Moreno D. 18. Riquett J. 20. Roa A. 19. Rojas T. 29. Torres E.
Coaches
Perea L.	Valencia C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', Cardona J. 🟨,
21', Colorado A. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Zapata Ramirez J. A. ⚽, Patino J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Palacios H. ↓, Klinger K. ↑,
46', Moreno D. ↓,
53', Escorcia L. 🟨,
57', Nieto J. 🟨,
64', Montano J. ↓, Erazo N. ↑,
64', Yony Gonzalez ↓, Lucumi C. ↑,
65', 0 - 2, Barrios M. ⚽, Zapata Ramirez J. A. (A),
79', Zapata Ramirez J. A. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
79', Barrios M. ↓, Torres E. ↑,
81', Loboa H. 🟨,
82', Klinger K. 🟨,
90', Quinones J. ↓, Alvarado J. ↑,
90+3', Gomez P. ↓, Guzman H. ↑,

Preview

An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 5th in the Promotion - Primera A (Clausura - Quadrangular: ) and 10th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 3.

Ind Medellín is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by Once Caldas have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Once Caldas could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Ind Medellín holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Ind Medellín has recorded 7 wins, 9 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 34:25 (averaging 1.7:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ind Medellín against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 6 draws, and 1 loss, with 15:11 goals (averaging 1.5:1.1 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Ind. Medellin	15	7	2	6	22:21	1	23
9	Once Caldas	16	5	6	5	20:18	2	21

Outrights of Colombian Primera A for now

Ind. Medellin: 8.23% Once Caldas: 3.29%

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente Medellín - the odds 1.96 are the expected chance of winning is 48.03%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Once Caldas - the odds 3.7 are the expected chance of winning is 25.45%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Copa
14.10.26	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín	3:2 ✺
Colombian Primera A
11.10.26	América de Cali - Independiente Medellín	1:2 ✺
05.10.26	Independiente Medellín - Independiente Santa Fe	0:1 ✺
29.09.26	Independiente Medellín - Millonarios	2:2 ✺
26.09.26	Junior Barranquilla - Independiente Medellín	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LWLTL
- Once Caldas
Colombian Primera A
09.10.26	Once Caldas - Llaneros SA	1:0 ✺
04.10.26	Inter Bogotá - Once Caldas	1:1 ✺
25.09.26	Once Caldas - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:3 ✺
19.09.26	Deportivo Pasto - Once Caldas	1:0 ✺
16.09.26	Once Caldas - Deportes Tolima	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
02.04.26	Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín	1:1
13.10.25	Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín	1:5
19.04.25	Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas	2:0
28.09.24	Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín	0:2
16.03.24	Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas	1:2
01.10.23	Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín	2:2
11.05.23	Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas	2:2

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