Match Info

J1 League - Round 21

Date: 23 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: Saitama Stadium (Saitama)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Urawa Red Diamonds		Shonan Bellmare

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.7	4.5	Watch
	1.77	3.5	4.5
	1.7	3.66	4.54	Watch
	1.75	3.89	4.97
	1.64	3.89	5.07	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.5
	1.73	3.85	4.74	Watch
	1.75	3.6	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.75)	3.69 ↑ (3.6)	4.73 ↓ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Urawa Red Diamonds
54.6%

Draw
25.5%

Shonan Bellmare
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

26.5%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

26.3%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Urawa Red Diamonds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Shonan Bellmare has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Urawa Red Diamonds than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shonan Bellmare than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.8%	6.1%	4.1%

Urawa Red Diamonds - Shonan Bellmare Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Shonan Bellmare (2.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Urawa (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Urawa Red Diamonds will win (44 of 48 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.85% – 99.49%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Urawa Red Diamonds will win (18 of 18 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Urawa (votes: 19 - 95%). Shonan Bellmare (votes: 1 - 5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nishikawa S. (G) 4. Ishihara H. 3. Danilo Boza 5. Hoibraaten M. 26. Ogiwara T. 25. Yasui K. 11. Gustafson S. 77. Kaneko T. 13. Watanabe R. 8. Matheus Savio 17. Komori H.	1. Popp W. (G) 37. Suzuki Y. 8. Ono K. 32. Matsumura S. 50. Fujii T. 15. Okuno K. 25. Okuno H. 28. Ota S. 7. Onose K. 13. Hiraoka T. 10. Suzuki A.
Substitutes
9. Haraguchi G. 35. Inoue R. 6. Matsumoto T. 24. Matsuo Y. 88. Naganuma Y. 16. Niekawa A. (G) 21. Okubo T. 14. Sekine T. 12. Thiago	14. Barada A. 18. Ikeda M. 20. Ishibashi S. 27. Luiz Phellype 66. Matsumoto H. 16. Nemoto R. 9. Oda Y. 31. Sanada K. (G) 4. Tachi K.
Coaches
Skorza M.	Yamaguchi S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
33', 1 - 0, Hoibraaten M. ⚽, Watanabe R. (A),
37', Watanabe R. ↓, Matsuo Y. ↑,
45+4', 2 - 0, Komori H. ⚽, Ogiwara T. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Ono K. ↓, Matsumoto H. ↑,
59', Hiraoka T. ↓, Luiz Phellype ↑,
66', Matheus Savio ↓, Sekine T. ↑,
66', Komori H. ↓, Matsumoto T. ↑,
66', Kaneko T. ↓, Okubo T. ↑,
67', Okuno K. ↓, Barada A. ↑,
67', Onose K. ↓, Oda Y. ↑,
71', 3 - 0, Sekine T. ⚽, Matsumoto T. (A),
75', Suzuki A. ↓, Ishibashi S. ↑,
77', 3 - 1, Ota S. ⚽, Luiz Phellype (A),
84', Gustafson S. ↓, Thiago ↑,
90+4', 4 - 1, Thiago ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Urawa won 2.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Shonan Bellmare may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Shonan Bellmare has had a series of home games.

In this match, Urawa is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Urawa: Shibato K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Shonan Bellmare: Kamifukumoto N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Matsumoto K. (Knee Injury) Nagai T. (Calf Injury) Takahashi N. (Shoulder Injury) Tamura S. (Thigh Injury) Ze Ricardo (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Urawa won 5 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 28:24. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Urawa won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Urawa Red Diamonds
Japan J1 League
19.07.25	Tokyo - Urawa Red Diamonds	3:2 ✺
FIFA Club World Cup
25.06.25	Urawa Red Diamonds - Monterrey	0:4 ✺
21.06.25	Inter Milan - Urawa Red Diamonds	2:1 ✺
17.06.25	River Plate - Urawa Red Diamonds	3:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
01.06.25	Urawa Red Diamonds - Yokohama FC	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LLLLW
- Shonan Bellmare
Japan J1 League
19.07.25	Shonan Bellmare - Cerezo Osaka	3:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
16.07.25	Shonan Bellmare - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:1 ET ✺
Japan J1 League
05.07.25	Vissel Kobe - Shonan Bellmare	4:0 ✺
28.06.25	Shonan Bellmare - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:1 ✺
14.06.25	Shonan Bellmare - Machida Zelvia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
26.02.25	Shonan Bellmare - Urawa Red Diamonds	2:1
06.07.24	Urawa Red Diamonds - Shonan Bellmare	2:3
17.03.24	Shonan Bellmare - Urawa Red Diamonds	4:4
25.08.23	Shonan Bellmare - Urawa Red Diamonds	0:1
28.06.23	Urawa Red Diamonds - Shonan Bellmare	4:1
Japan J League Cup
19.04.23	Urawa Red Diamonds - Shonan Bellmare	1:1
08.03.23	Shonan Bellmare - Urawa Red Diamonds	0:0

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