Match Info

J1 League - Round 23

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Noevir Stadium (Kobe)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball, ZhiBo8
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Vissel Kobe		Shonan Bellmare

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.2	6	Watch
	1.58	3.8	5.5
	1.51	4.05	5.91	Watch
	1.54	4.3	6.68
				Watch
	1.57	3.8	5.5
	1.53	4.24	6.38	Watch
	1.55	3.9	5.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.38)	4.04 ↓ (4.57)	5.95 ↓ (7.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vissel Kobe
60.9%

Draw
23.3%

Shonan Bellmare
15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.1%

20.3%

12.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.4%

19.1%

11.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vissel Kobe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vissel Kobe's form might have worsened.

Shonan Bellmare has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vissel Kobe than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vissel Kobe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shonan Bellmare than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Vissel Kobe - Shonan Bellmare Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Vissel Kobe will win (votes: 17 - 73.9%). Shonan Bellmare will win (votes: 3 - 13%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vissel Kobe: 56% – 91.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Vissel Kobe (votes: 7 - 70%). Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Vissel Kobe (1.90) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Vissel Kobe (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Shonan Bellmare (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Maekawa D. (G) 24. Sakai G. 4. Yamakawa T. 3. Thuler 25. Kuwasaki Y. 6. Ogihara T. 7. Ideguchi Y. 9. Miyashiro T. 27. Erik 13. Sasaki D. 23. Hirose R.	1. Popp W. (G) 22. Oiwa K. 47. Kim Min-Tae 8. Ono K. 14. Barada A. 37. Suzuki Y. 7. Onose K. 13. Hiraoka T. 32. Matsumura S. 10. Suzuki A. 19. Fukuda S.
Substitutes
21. Arai S. (G) 16. Caetano 77. Gustavo Klismahn 44. Hidaka M. 15. Honda Y. 31. Iwanami T. 41. Nagato K. 30. Yamauchi K. 14. Yuruki K.	77. Ishii H. 27. Luiz Phellype 72. Nitta R. 9. Oda Y. 25. Okuno H. 15. Okuno K. 31. Sanada K. (G) 4. Tachi K. 6. Ze Ricardo
Coaches
Yoshida T.	Yamaguchi S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Ogihara T. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Hiraoka T. ↓, Oda Y. ↑,
48', 2 - 0, Miyashiro T. ⚽, Sasaki D. (A),
56', Oiwa K. ↓, Ishii H. ↑,
56', Ono K. ↓, Okuno H. ↑,
68', Hirose R. ↓, Yuruki K. ↑,
71', Oda Y. 🟨,
77', 3 - 0, Sasaki D. ⚽, Miyashiro T. (A),
81', Barada A. ↓, Ze Ricardo ↑,
81', Ogihara T. ↓, Nagato K. ↑,
81', Sasaki D. ↓, Yamauchi K. ↑,
83', Fukuda S. ↓, Nitta R. ↑,
88', Yamakawa T. ↓, Iwanami T. ↑,
88', Erik ↓, Gustavo Klismahn ↑,
90+3', 4 - 0, Yuruki K. ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2 and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vissel Kobe won 4.

Vissel Kobe has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Shonan Bellmare's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Shonan Bellmare may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Shonan Bellmare has had a series of home games.

In this match, Vissel Kobe is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Vissel Kobe: Hamasaki K. (Inactive) Muto Y. (Back Injury) Tominaga N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Shonan Bellmare: Ishibashi S. (Inactive) Matsumoto K. (Inactive) Nagai T. (Calf Injury) Tamura S. (Thigh Injury) Ze Ricardo (Inactive)

There are questionable in Vissel Kobe: Jean Patric (Inactive)

There are questionable in Shonan Bellmare: Suzuki J. (Injury)

We predict that Vissel Kobe will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vissel Kobe won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 34:20. (average 1.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Vissel Kobe won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:11. (average 2:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vissel Kobe
Japan J1 League
02.07.25	Vissel Kobe - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:0 ✺
28.06.25	Avispa Fukuoka - Vissel Kobe	0:0 ✺
21.06.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Vissel Kobe	1:2 ✺
15.06.25	Vissel Kobe - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	Vissel Kobe - Kochi United	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WTWWW
- Shonan Bellmare
Japan J1 League
28.06.25	Shonan Bellmare - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:1 ✺
14.06.25	Shonan Bellmare - Machida Zelvia	1:2 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	Shonan Bellmare - Gifu	2:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
08.06.25	Júbilo Iwata - Shonan Bellmare	1:0 ✺
04.06.25	Shonan Bellmare - Júbilo Iwata	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
16.03.25	Shonan Bellmare - Vissel Kobe	1:2
08.12.24	Vissel Kobe - Shonan Bellmare	3:0
20.04.24	Shonan Bellmare - Vissel Kobe	0:1
28.10.23	Shonan Bellmare - Vissel Kobe	1:1
29.04.23	Vissel Kobe - Shonan Bellmare	2:0
12.10.22	Vissel Kobe - Shonan Bellmare	1:0
21.05.22	Shonan Bellmare - Vissel Kobe	2:1

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