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Current Win Probability
Shonan Bellmare 25.9%
Draw 25.7%
Cerezo Osaka 48.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
33.3%
26.3%
40.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
31.8%
25.1%
42.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Shonan Bellmare has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Shonan Bellmare's form might have worsened.
Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cerezo Osaka's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shonan Bellmare than the current prediction. (+5.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Shonan Bellmare, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (-6.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cerezo Osaka, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
8.3%
8.3%
83.3%
Shonan Bellmare - Cerezo Osaka Predictions
Users Predictions:
24 users predict this event. Shonan Bellmare will win (votes: 2 - 8.3%). Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 20 - 83.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8.3%). Confidence interval (95%) for Cerezo Osaka: 68.4% โ 98.2%.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
AH +0.5 - Cerezo Osaka (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cerezo Osaka will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) ๐ฅ Gold Tip.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerezo Osaka (votes: 9 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Popp W. (G) 50. Fujii T. 37. Suzuki Y. 8. Ono K. 32. Matsumura S. 7. Onose K. 15. Okuno K. 25. Okuno H. 13. Hiraoka T. 10. Suzuki A. 28. Ota S.
1. Fukui K. (G) 27. Cools D. 33. Nishio R. 44. Hatanaka S. 16. Okuda H. 5. Kida H. 10. Tanaka S. 77. Fernandes L. 8. Kagawa S. 11. Thiago Andrade 9. Rafael Ratao
Substitutes
14. Barada A. 18. Ikeda M. 20. Ishibashi S. 27. Luiz Phellype 66. Matsumoto H. 72. Nitta R. 9. Oda Y. 31. Sanada K. (G) 4. Tachi K.
29. Furuyama K. 19. Homma S. 21. Kim Jin-Hyeon (G) 13. Nakajima M. 2. Nakamura T. 17. Sakata R. 48. Shibayama M. 55. Vitor Bueno 35. Yoshino K.
Coaches
Yamaguchi S.
Papastamatis A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Fernandes L. ⚽, Rafael Ratao (A),
14', 1 - 1, Suzuki A. ⚽, Onose K. (A),
42', 2 - 1, Hiraoka T. ⚽, Suzuki A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', 2 - 2, Rafael Ratao ⚽,
52', Nishio R. 🟨,
67', Okuno K. ↓, Matsumoto H. ↑,
71', Cools D. ↓, Nakamura T. ↑,
73', 2 - 3, Thiago Andrade ⚽, Kagawa S. (A),
74', Hiraoka T. ↓, Oda Y. ↑,
75', Suzuki A. ↓, Luiz Phellype ↑,
75', Onose K. ↓, Ikeda M. ↑,
79', Ota S. ↓, Ishibashi S. ↑,
82', Thiago Andrade ↓, Homma S. ↑,
82', Rafael Ratao ↓, Nakajima M. ↑,
89', 3 - 3, Luiz Phellype (Pen),
90', Kagawa S. ↓, Shibayama M. ↑,
Preview
A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 and 9).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shonan Bellmare won 3.
Shonan Bellmare has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Cerezo Osaka is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins โ 3).
Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.
Cerezo Osaka will hold a modest advantage in this match.
There will not play in Shonan Bellmare: Matsumoto K.
(Inactive)
Nagai T.
(Calf Injury)
Tamura S.
(Thigh Injury)
There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Hirano Y.
(Knee Injury)
Uejo S.
(Inactive)
There are questionable in Shonan Bellmare: Kamifukumoto N.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Takahashi N.
(Injury)
Ze Ricardo
(Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Cerezo Osaka: Takahashi N.
(Foot Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Shonan Bellmare won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 21:27. (average 1.1:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Shonan Bellmare won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 6:14. (average 0.7:1.6).
Last Results with these Odds
Shonan Bellmare - the odds 2.77 are the expected chance of winning is 33.29%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.
Australia
China
India
Japan
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Popp W. (G) 
Cools D. 
Fernandes L. 
Kim Jin-Hyeon (G) 
Papastamatis A. 
