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Uruguay - Spain: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • World Championship - Round 3
  • Date: 26 June 2026, Friday
  • Location: Estadio Akron (Zapopan)
  • Referee: Elfath I. (Usa)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Uruguay Spain
    Uruguay Spain
    1 X 2
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    (Initially)    		 5.88 ↓
    (5.97)    		 3.69 ↓
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    (1.56)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

    • The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Uruguay
    16.4%    		Draw
    26.1%    		Spain
    57.5%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    16.1% 22.3% 61.6%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Uruguay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)
  • Spain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    9.5% 15.9% 74.6%

    Uruguay - Spain Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 122 users predict this event. Uruguay will win (votes: 12 - 9.8%). Spain will win (votes: 92 - 75.4%). It will Tie (votes: 18 - 14.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Spain: 67.8% – 83%. The data is statistically significant.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH -1 - Spain (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (1.95) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
    • AH +0.5 - Uruguay (2.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (2.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Spain will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Uruguay (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Spain (votes: 9 - 75%). Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    23. UruguayMuslera F. (G) Estudiantes L.P.
    13. UruguayVarela G. Flamengo RJ
      3. UruguayCaceres S. Club America
    16. UruguayOlivera M. Napoli
    25. UruguaySanabria J. Real Salt Lake
      5. UruguayUgarte M. Manchester United
    14. UruguayCanobbio A. Fluminense
      6. UruguayBentancur R. Tottenham
      8. UruguayValverde F. (C) Real Madrid
    20. UruguayAraujo M. Sporting CP
      9. UruguayNunez D. Al Hilal
    		23. SpainSimon U. (G) Ath Bilbao
      5. SpainLlorente M. Atl. Madrid
    22. SpainCubarsi P. Barcelona
    14. SpainLaporte A. Ath Bilbao
    24. SpainCucurella M. Chelsea
      6. SpainMerino M. Arsenal
    16. SpainRodri (C) Manchester City
    20. SpainPedri Barcelona
    19. SpainLamine Yamal Barcelona
    21. SpainOyarzabal M. Real Sociedad
    15. SpainBaena A. Atl. Madrid
    Substitutes
    19. UruguayAguirre R. Tigres UANL
      4. UruguayAraujo R. Barcelona
    24. UruguayBueno S. Wolves
    10. Uruguayde Arrascaeta G. Flamengo RJ
      7. Uruguayde la Cruz N. Flamengo RJ
      2. UruguayGimenez J. Atl. Madrid
    15. UruguayMartinez E. Palmeiras
    12. UruguayMele S. (G) Monterrey
    11. UruguayPellistri F. Panathinaikos
    22. UruguayPiquerez J. Palmeiras
      1. UruguayRochet S. (G) Internacional
    18. UruguayRodriguez B. Club America
    17. UruguayVina M. River Plate
    21. UruguayVinas F. Real Oviedo
    26. UruguayZalazar R. Braga
    		  4. SpainGarcia E. Barcelona
    13. SpainGarcia J. (G) Barcelona
      9. SpainGavi Barcelona
      3. SpainGrimaldo A. Bayer Leverkusen
    26. SpainIglesias B. Celta Vigo
    25. SpainMunoz V. Osasuna
    10. SpainOlmo D. Barcelona
    11. SpainPino Y. Crystal Palace
    12. SpainPorro P. Tottenham
      2. SpainPubill M. Atl. Madrid
      1. SpainRaya D. (G) Arsenal
      8. SpainRuiz F. PSG
      7. SpainTorres F. Barcelona
    17. SpainWilliams N. Ath Bilbao
    18. SpainZubimendi M. Arsenal
    Coaches
         ArgentinaBielsa M.
    		     Spainde la Fuente L.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 1)
    • 42', 0 - 1, Baena A. ⚽, Llorente M. (A),
    • 45', Ugarte M. ↓, de la Cruz N. ↑,
    • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
    • 46', Muslera F. ↓, Rochet S. ↑,
    • 46', Baena A. 🟨,
    • 54', Sanabria J. 🟨,
    • 57', Valverde F. ↓, Vinas F. ↑,
    • 58', Varela G. 🟨,
    • 60', Pedri ↓, Ruiz F. ↑,
    • 60', Merino M. ↓, Olmo D. ↑,
    • 66', Baena A. ↓, Pino Y. ↑,
    • 70', Sanabria J. ↓, Rodriguez B. ↑,
    • 76', Lamine Yamal ↓, Williams N. ↑,
    • 76', Oyarzabal M. ↓, Torres F. ↑,
    • 90+3', de la Cruz N. 🟨,
    • 90+5', Canobbio A. 🟥,

    Preview

  • Uruguay is ranked FIFA: 16. Spain is ranked FIFA: 2.
  • In this match, Spain is the clear favorite.
  • There will not play in Uruguay: Araujo R. (Calf Injury) de Arrascaeta G. (Calf Injury)
  • There are questionable in Spain: Munoz V. (Muscle Injury)
  • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Uruguay won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).

    • Standings

    South America
    PlWDLDiffPts
    4Uruguay1877422:121028

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Uruguay
    FIFA World Cup
    21.06.26 Uruguay - Cape Verde 2:2 ✺
    15.06.26 Saudi Arabia - Uruguay 1:1 ✺
    Friendly
    31.03.26 Algeria - Uruguay 0:0 ✺
    27.03.26 England - Uruguay 1:1 ✺
    18.11.25 USA - Uruguay 5:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9
    TTTTL
    - Spain
    FIFA World Cup
    21.06.26 Spain - Saudi Arabia 4:0 ✺
    15.06.26 Spain - Cape Verde 0:0 ✺
    Friendly
    08.06.26 Peru - Spain 1:3 ✺
    04.06.26 Spain - Iraq 1:1 ✺
    31.03.26 Spain - Egypt 0:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3
    WTWTT
    Latest Head to Head
    FIFA Confederations Cup
    16.06.13 Spain - Uruguay 2:1
    Friendly
    06.02.13 Spain - Uruguay 3:1

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