Match Info

Matogrossense - Round 8

Date: 5 February 2026, Thursday


	Várzea Grande		Nova Mutum

	1	X	2
	2.78	3.05	2.35
	2.77	3.1	2.29
	2.84	3.22	2.36	Watch
	2.88	2.9	2.38
	2.87	3.05	2.35
	2.83	3.14	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↓ (3.12)	3.08 ↓ (3.21)	2.34 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Várzea Grande
32%

Draw
29.4%

Nova Mutum
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.5%

28.7%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

27.8%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Várzea Grande has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Nova Mutum has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Várzea Grande than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nova Mutum than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Várzea Grande - Nova Mutum Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 3)
63', 0 - 1, Mendes ⚽,
65', 0 - 2, Didinho ⚽,
78', 0 - 3, Jackie Chan ⚽,
90', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Várzea Grande has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Nova Mutum has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Várzea Grande may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Nova Mutum might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Várzea Grande EC
Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
01.02.26	Várzea Grande - Sport Sinop	1:2 ✺
25.01.26	Mixto - Várzea Grande	0:0 ✺
20.01.26	Várzea Grande - União Rondonópolis	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Chapada - Várzea Grande	3:1 ✺
14.01.26	Várzea Grande - Luverdense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 LTTLL
- Nova Mutum EC
Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
31.01.26	Cuiabá - Nova Mutum	2:1 ✺
28.01.26	Nova Mutum - Chapada	3:2 ✺
25.01.26	Operário Ltda - Nova Mutum	3:1 ✺
22.01.26	Primavera AC - Nova Mutum	2:2 ✺
18.01.26	Nova Mutum - Luverdense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWLTT

Várzea Grande - Nova Mutum: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide