Match Info

COLOMBIA: PRIMERA B - APERTURA - ROUND 12

Date: 16 April 2023, Sunday


	Valledupar		Bogotá

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.53	3.5	5.5
	1.6	3.5	5.8
	1.59	3.67	6.76
	1.57	3.3	5.8
	1.58	3.56	5.8
	1.57	3.6	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.87)	3.52 ↑ (3.36)	5.84 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valledupar
58.3%

Draw
26%

Bogotá
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

27.7%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

27.4%

22.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valledupar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Valledupar's performance.

Bogotá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bogotá might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valledupar than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Valledupar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bogotá than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bogotá could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	18.2%	9.1%

Valledupar - Bogotá Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Valledupar will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Bogotá will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Valledupar: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 9 and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Valledupar won 2.

Valledupar is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Bogotá is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Valledupar is a favorite.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Valledupar won 8 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 27-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Valledupar won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 17-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valledupar FC
Colombian Primera B
10.04.23	Patriotas - Valledupar	0:0 ✺
02.04.23	Valledupar - Deportes Quindío	1:1 ✺
29.03.23	Barranquilla - Valledupar	0:0 ✺
24.03.23	Leones - Valledupar	0:2 ✺
19.03.23	Valledupar - Boca Juniors de Cali	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 TTTWW
- Bogotá FC
Colombian Primera B
10.04.23	Bogotá - Leones	4:3 ✺
03.04.23	Cúcuta Deportivo - Bogotá	2:0 ✺
Colombian Copa
29.03.23	Alianza Valledupar - Bogotá	1:0 ✺
Colombian Primera B
25.03.23	Bogotá - Tigres	0:1 ✺
19.03.23	Real Santander - Bogotá	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
22.08.22	Valledupar - Bogotá	3:3
14.02.22	Bogotá - Valledupar	2:1
30.08.21	Valledupar - Bogotá	0:2
15.02.21	Valledupar - Bogotá	6:0
07.12.20	Bogotá - Valledupar	1:2
29.11.20	Valledupar - Bogotá	1:0
09.03.20	Bogotá - Valledupar	3:0

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