Match Info

Primera B - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Villa Concha (Piedecuesta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Real Santander		Bogotá

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.9	3.3	1.88
	4.13	3.28	1.93
	3.34	3.31	2.14	Watch
	3.7	3.1	1.85
	3.92	3.42	1.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.8 ↑ (2.44)	3.28 ↑ (3.23)	1.94 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Santander
24.3%

Draw
28.1%

Bogotá
47.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

28.8%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

29.6%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Santander has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Santander's form might have worsened.

Bogotá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bogotá's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Santander than the current prediction. (+14.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Santander, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bogotá than the current prediction. (-15.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bogotá, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Real Santander - Bogotá Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Bogotá will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mora J. (G) 19. Ahumada S. 39. Almeida V. 11. Diaz M. 2. Perez J. 30. Perez J. 26. Roman B. 7. Rueda Juan 25. Segura A. 4. Velasco Y. 34. Villamizar J.	29. Aguilar A. (G) 36. Canizalez S. 99. Castillo D. 10. Castro B. 6. Castro K. 18. Cuero B. 32. Gutierrez A. 13. Moreno Abadia J. C. 7. Mosquera C. 33. Perez J. 5. Sanchez J. (C)
Substitutes
37. Delgado J. 8. Garcia J. 16. Hernandez J. 12. Lazaro J. (G) 35. Montero Alarcon F. 18. Neira Y. 24. Rangel L. 10. Rivera Mendoza F. I. 20. Salas H.	14. Alfonso A. 16. Jefferson R. 28. Medina M. 21. Montien D. 1. Osorno J. (G) 31. Reyes D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Perez J. ⚽,
35', Cuero B. 🟨,
45+1', 🟨,
45+2', Gutierrez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Velasco Y. ↓, Salas H. ↑,
56', 1 - 1, Castillo D. ⚽,
65', Castro B. ↓, Medina M. ↑,
68', Ahumada S. ↓, Delgado J. ↑,
84', Castillo D. ↓, Jefferson R. ↑,
86', 1 - 2, Jefferson R. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Santander won 3.

Real Santander is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Bogotá has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Real Santander may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Real Santander won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 30:19. (average 1.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Santander won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 18:5. (average 2.3:0.6).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Bogota	11	3	3	5	9:13	-4	12
13	Real Santander	11	2	6	3	13:18	-5	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Santander
Colombian Primera B
12.04.26	Leones - Real Santander	1:0 ✺
07.04.26	Barranquilla - Real Santander	2:0 ✺
31.03.26	Real Santander - Envigado	1:3 ✺
26.03.26	Unión Magdalena - Real Santander	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	Real Santander - Tigres	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLLT
- Bogotá FC
Colombian Primera B
13.04.26	Bogotá - Orsomarso	2:0 ✺
01.04.26	Bogotá - Real Cundinamarca	2:2 ✺
25.03.26	Envigado - Bogotá	1:2 ✺
20.03.26	Bogotá - Deportes Quindío	0:2 ✺
16.03.26	Barranquilla - Bogotá	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.6 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
04.08.25	Real Santander - Bogotá	4:0
22.02.25	Bogotá - Real Santander	2:1
09.09.24	Bogotá - Real Santander	1:0
06.04.24	Real Santander - Bogotá	3:0
02.09.23	Bogotá - Real Santander	1:2
19.03.23	Real Santander - Bogotá	2:0
08.08.22	Real Santander - Bogotá	2:0

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