Match Info

1. Lig - Round 28

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Ataturk City Stadium (Van)

Referee: Altay C. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 MAX, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Vanspor		Erzurumspor

	1	X	2
	3.1	3	2.15	Watch
	3	3.1	2.15
	3.18	3.13	2.18	Watch
	3.39	3.25	2.23
	3.3	3.26	2.18	Watch
	3.3	3	2.2
	3.23	3.08	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.21 ↑ (3.15)	3.12 ↓ (3.18)	2.18 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vanspor
28.5%

Draw
29.4%

Erzurumspor
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.5%

29.2%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.5%

28.2%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vanspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Erzurumspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

The ML Model estimate for Vanspor aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzurumspor than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	25%	37.5%

Vanspor - Erzurumspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Vanspor will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Erzurumspor will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vanspor: 4% – 71%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Vanspor (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Vanspor (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Akbaba C. (C) 13. Oulare N. 53. Cavusoglu M. 6. Jevsenak Z. 22. Destici S. 41. Ozcan M. 8. Traore A. 7. Hostikka S. 10. Jefferson 45. Bars E. 19. Bikoue	31. Orbanic M. (G) 53. Ovacikli O. 22. Yumlu M. (C) 3. Kirtay Y. 15. Giorbelidze G. 6. Baiye B. 99. Fettahoglu M. 24. Crociata G. 8. Akgun S. 65. Rodriguez M. 10. Tozlu E.
Substitutes
65. Bingol M. 21. Demirol A. 16. Gebecelioglu B. (G) 35. Isciler B. 77. Usta G. 1. Uysal A. (G) 11. Xesc 82. Yildrim A.	11. Akpinar M. 1. Anapa E. (G) 23. Bayrak C. 19. Fernando Andrade 4. Gerxhaliu A. 16. Kabak A. 77. Keser B. 29. Sylla C. 2. Ulgen A. 9. Yener H.
Coaches
Korkmaz O.	Ozbalta S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Ozcan M. 🟨,
10', Kirtay Y. 🟨,
33', Hostikka S. 🟨,
40', Korkmaz O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
52', 0 - 1, Fettahoglu M. ⚽, Tozlu E. (A),
57', Destici S. ↓, Isciler B. ↑,
63', 0 - 2, Rodriguez M. ⚽, Tozlu E. (A),
72', Akgun S. ↓, Keser B. ↑,
79', Traore A. ↓, Demirol A. ↑,
79', Bars E. ↓, Xesc ↑,
83', Rodriguez M. ↓, Kabak A. ↑,
83', Tozlu E. ↓, Yener H. ↑,
83', Yumlu M. 🟨,
88', 0 - 3, Kirtay Y. ⚽,
90+4', Fettahoglu M. ↓, Gerxhaliu A. ↑,
90+4', Crociata G. ↓, Sylla C. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Lig).

Vanspor has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Erzurumspor is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Vanspor may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Erzurumspor might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Erzurumspor: Ozhan F. (Suspended) Saglik S. (Inactive) Sasi F. (Inactive) Yigit E. (Suspended)

There are questionable in Vanspor: Oulare N. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Vanspor won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
19	Vanspor FK	8	1	3	4	8:17	-9	4

Last Results with these Odds

Erzurumspor - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.29%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vanspor FK
Turkish First League
23.02.26	Amed SK - Vanspor	1:0 ✺
19.02.26	Vanspor - Bodrumspor	3:1 ✺
14.02.26	Sivasspor - Vanspor	3:3 ✺
07.02.26	Vanspor - Çorum	3:1 ✺
01.02.26	Bandırmaspor - Vanspor	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LWTWL
- Erzurumspor
Turkish First League
22.02.26	Erzurumspor - Serik Belediyespor	4:0 ✺
18.02.26	Keçiörengücü - Erzurumspor	1:2 ✺
09.02.26	Sakaryaspor - Erzurumspor	0:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
05.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Erzurumspor	3:1 ✺
Turkish First League
31.01.26	Erzurumspor - Sarıyer	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
04.10.25	Erzurumspor - Vanspor	1:1

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