Match Info

Superettan - Round 23

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Paskbergsvallen (Varberg)

Referee: Lindgren M. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Sweden	Discovery+, HBO Max, max Extra 5, TV4 Play


	Varbergs BoIS		Trelleborg

	1	X	2
	1.62	4	5
	1.62	4.05	4.85
	1.64	4.21	5
	1.04	13.79	30.00	Watch
	1.62	4	5	Watch
	1.68	3.6	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.68)	5.61 ↑ (4)	8.99 ↑ (4.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varbergs BoIS
69.2%

Draw
19%

Trelleborg
11.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.1%

23.6%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

22.9%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varbergs BoIS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Varbergs BoIS's performance.

Trelleborg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Trelleborg might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varbergs BoIS than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Varbergs BoIS that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trelleborg than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Trelleborg could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Varbergs BoIS - Trelleborg Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Varberg (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Varberg (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Trelleborg (3.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Varbergs BoIS will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Varberg (votes: 3 - 75%). Trelleborg (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Andersson F. (G) 8. Liljenback A. 12. Tellgren E. 2. Broman G. (C) 24. Hellman E. 22. Loukili Z. 28. Sadiku E. 21. Vidjeskog I. 10. Shabani L. 15. Jonasson Westermark J. 42. Kabuye C.	12. Nilsson M. (G) 20. Horberg F. 5. Ogwuche A. 3. Weberg C. (C) 15. Godwin E. 10. Vidjeskog A. 24. Christiansson V. 6. Wendt K. 22. Martinsson F. 35. Mehmeti A. 8. Ruuska O.
Substitutes
4. Dahlstrom N. 13. Edlund O. 18. Lindner J. 11. Mohudin N. A. 1. Strindholm D. (G) 23. Tokich M. 5. Winbo A.	21. Alievski E. 7. Andersson J. 16. Asani A. 50. Brandin O. 26. Kack J. 19. Karlsson T. 14. Nehme A.
Coaches
Hansen R.	Haynes K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Shabani L. ⚽, Loukili Z. (A),
22', 2 - 0, Jonasson Westermark J. ⚽, Hellman E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', 2 - 1, Wendt K. ⚽,
67', Loukili Z. ↓, Edlund O. ↑,
68', Liljenback A. 🟨,
75', Shabani L. ↓, Dahlstrom N. ↑,
75', Vidjeskog I. ↓, Winbo A. ↑,
76', Ruuska O. ↓, Nehme A. ↑,
84', Ogwuche A. 🟨,
86', Vidjeskog A. ↓, Kack J. ↑,
86', Godwin E. ↓, Andersson J. ↑,
86', Ogwuche A. ↓, Karlsson T. ↑,
90', Kabuye C. ↓, Tokich M. ↑,
90+4', Karlsson T. 🟨,
90+5', 3 - 1, Mohudin N. A. (Pen),

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 and 14 in the zone Superettan (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Varberg won 4.

Varberg is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Trelleborg's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Varberg is a strong favorite.

We predict that Varberg will win today's game, with odds of 1.75.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Varberg won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:4. (average 1.2:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Varberg won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varbergs BoIS
Swedish Superettan
13.09.25	Sundsvall - Varbergs BoIS	2:3 ✺
30.08.25	Varbergs BoIS - Falkenberg	3:2 ✺
24.08.25	Varbergs BoIS - Östersund	1:1 ✺
Svenska Cupen
19.08.25	Eskilsminne - Varbergs BoIS	1:2 ✺
Swedish Superettan
15.08.25	Utsikten - Varbergs BoIS	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWTWT
- Trelleborgs FF
Swedish Superettan
14.09.25	Trelleborg - Sandviken	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Brage - Trelleborg	2:1 ✺
25.08.25	Trelleborg - Landskrona	1:0 ✺
Svenska Cupen
20.08.25	Lunds - Trelleborg	2:3 ✺
Swedish Superettan
15.08.25	Oddevold - Trelleborg	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Superettan
27.04.25	Trelleborg - Varbergs BoIS	0:4
Club Friendly
05.02.25	Varbergs BoIS - Trelleborg	2:1
Swedish Superettan
02.11.24	Trelleborg - Varbergs BoIS	0:1
06.05.24	Varbergs BoIS - Trelleborg	0:1
26.08.19	Trelleborg - Varbergs BoIS	0:1
07.04.19	Varbergs BoIS - Trelleborg	3:1
02.10.17	Trelleborg - Varbergs BoIS	1:1

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