Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Final

Date: 28 August 2025, Thursday

Location: San Marino Stadium (Serravalle)

Referee: Balakin M. (Ukr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Iceland	SÝN Sport Ísland


	Virtus		Breiðablik

	1	X	2
	8	5	1.3	Watch
	7.25	5.25	1.32	Watch
	8.8	4.95	1.32	Watch
	8.9	5.41	1.3
	7.31	4.90	1.37	Watch
	8.5	5	1.3
	8.64	5.4	1.33	Watch
	5.5	4.33	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.86 ↑ (5.66)	5.03 ↑ (4.2)	1.34 ↓ (1.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Virtus
11.9%

Draw
18.6%

Breiðablik
69.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.2%

21.8%

62%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.2%

19.4%

55.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Virtus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Breiðablik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Breiðablik's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Virtus than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Virtus, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Breiðablik than the current prediction. (-14.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Breiðablik, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5%	15%	80%

Virtus - Breiðablik Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Breiðablik will win (16 of 17 users predict this - 94.12%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.94% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Breiðablik will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Guddo S. (G) 15. Gori N. 26. Giacomoni A. 18. Legittimo M. 6. Sabato R. 10. Buonocunto I. 4. Montanari A. 17. Golinucci A. (C) 19. Niang A. 90. Scappini S. 33. Zenoni M.	1. Einarsson A. (G) 17. Valgeirsson V. 44. Muminovic D. 4. Orrason A. 19. Jonsson K. 7. Gunnlaugsson H. (C) 6. Jonsson A. 8. Einarsson V. 15. Thorsteinsson A. 23. Kristinsson K. 18. Ingvarsson D.
Substitutes
21. Amati A. 7. Battistini M. 25. Benincasa S. 20. Capicchioni G. 45. Ciacci E. 34. De Lucia U. 11. Lombardi T. 16. Muggeo J. 39. Passaniti A. (G)	11. Bjarnason A. 32. Bjorgvinsson K. 12. Bragason B. (G) 29. Hallsson G. 13. Ludviksson A. 99. Magnusson G. 9. Omarsson O. 33. Snaeholm G. (G) 10. Steindorsson K. 77. Thomsen T. 45. Ulfarsson T. 30. Yeoman A.
Coaches
Bizzotto L.	Arnason H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Kristinsson K. ⚽,
25', Einarsson V. 🟨,
33', Zenoni M. 🟨,
41', 1 - 1, Niang A. ⚽, Zenoni M. (A),
43', Zenoni M. 🟨,
43', Buonocunto I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
50', Einarsson V. ↓, Steindorsson K. ↑,
59', 1 - 2, Ingvarsson D. ⚽, Thorsteinsson A. (A),
65', Gori N. ↓, Lombardi T. ↑,
65', Montanari A. ↓, Amati A. ↑,
68', Kristinsson K. ↓, Thomsen T. ↑,
68', Thorsteinsson A. ↓, Bjarnason A. ↑,
70', Sabato R. 🟨,
70', 🟨,
70', Sabato R. ↓, De Lucia U. ↑,
77', 1 - 3, Thomsen T. ⚽, Bjarnason A. (A),
77', Buonocunto I. ↓, Benincasa S. ↑,
80', Scappini S. 🟨,
80', Jonsson A. ↓, Magnusson G. ↑,
80', Jonsson K. ↓, Omarsson O. ↑,
84', Benincasa S. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-2. 2nd leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - San Marino Stadium.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Virtus may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Breiðablik is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Virtus won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SS Virtus
UEFA Europa Conference League
21.08.25	Breiðablik - Virtus	2:1 ✺
14.08.25	Virtus - Milsami Orhei	3:0 ✺
07.08.25	Milsami Orhei - Virtus	3:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
15.07.25	Zrinjski Mostar - Virtus	2:1 ✺
08.07.25	Virtus - Zrinjski Mostar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LWLLL
- Breiðablik UBK
UEFA Europa Conference League
21.08.25	Breiðablik - Virtus	2:1 ✺
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
17.08.25	Breiðablik - FH Hafnarfjordur	4:5 ✺
UEFA Europa League
14.08.25	Breiðablik - Zrinjski Mostar	1:2 ✺
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
10.08.25	Valur - Breiðablik	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.08.25	Zrinjski Mostar - Breiðablik	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
21.08.25	Breiðablik - Virtus	2:1

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