Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 7 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadion pod Bijelim Brijegom (Mostar)

Referee: Jorgji E. (Alb)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Iceland	SÝN Sport Ísland
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2


	Zrinjski Mostar		Breiðablik

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.6	5.5	Watch
	1.57	4.2	5.25
	1.58	3.95	5.4	Watch
	1.59	4	5.91
	1.76	3.46	4.81	Watch
	1.55	3.9	5
	1.61	4.03	6	Watch
	1.69	3.8	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.69)	3.87 ↑ (3.8)	5.27 ↑ (4.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zrinjski Mostar
58%

Draw
24.2%

Breiðablik
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

24.1%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

23.6%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zrinjski Mostar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Breiðablik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zrinjski Mostar than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Breiðablik than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65.4%	19.2%	15.4%

Zrinjski Mostar - Breiðablik Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Zrinjski will win (votes: 15 - 68.2%). Breiðablik will win (votes: 4 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zrinjski: 48.7% – 87.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Zrinjski (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Breiðablik (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

TQ, OT - Breiðablik (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Breiðablik (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Zrinjski (1.14) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Zrinjski (1.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Zrinjski (votes: 9 - 56.3%). Breiðablik (votes: 6 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Karacic G. (G) 50. Memija K. 44. Sunjic T. 5. Masic I. 12. Mamic P. 21. Savic I. 23. Surdanovic S. 9. Mikic L. 20. Ivancic A. 22. Pranjic J. 99. Bilbija N. (C)	1. Einarsson A. (G) 4. Orrason A. 44. Muminovic D. 21. Margeirsson V. 19. Jonsson K. 17. Valgeirsson V. 7. Gunnlaugsson H. (C) 8. Einarsson V. 15. Thorsteinsson A. 77. Thomsen T. 10. Steindorsson K.
Substitutes
77. Abramovic K. 4. Barisic H. 55. Dujmovic D. 3. Filipovic B. 27. Jakovljevic S. 10. Kis T. 40. Ljubic M. (G) 14. Sakota M. 80. Seva M. 17. Susak A. 16. Susic M. 1. Sutkovic A. (G)	11. Bjarnason A. 12. Bragason B. (G) 24. Gautason V. 29. Hallsson G. 18. Ingvarsson D. 6. Jonsson A. 23. Kristinsson K. 13. Ludviksson A. 9. Omarsson O. 33. Snaeholm G. (G) 45. Ulfarsson T.
Coaches
Stimac I.	Arnason H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', Masic I. 🟨,
18', Thomsen T. (Pen),
18', 0 - 1, Thomsen T. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Memija K. ↓, Susic M. ↑,
46', Ivancic A. ↓, Kis T. ↑,
66', Steindorsson K. ↓, Omarsson O. ↑,
66', Jonsson K. ↓, Ingvarsson D. ↑,
68', Surdanovic S. ↓, Filipovic B. ↑,
72', 1 - 1, Bilbija N. (Pen),
75', Susic M. ↓, Abramovic K. ↑,
76', Pranjic J. ↓, Sakota M. ↑,
83', Thomsen T. ↓, Kristinsson K. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Zrinjski may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Zrinjski is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Zrinjski won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 3:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Zrinjski won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zrinjski Mostar
UEFA Champions League
29.07.25	Zrinjski Mostar - Slovan Bratislava	2:2 ✺
22.07.25	Slovan Bratislava - Zrinjski Mostar	4:0 ✺
15.07.25	Zrinjski Mostar - Virtus	2:1 ✺
08.07.25	Virtus - Zrinjski Mostar	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
02.07.25	Zrinjski Mostar - Željezničar Sarajevo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TLWWL
- Breiðablik UBK
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
03.08.25	Breiðablik - KA Akureyri	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.07.25	Breiðablik - Lech Poznań	0:1 ✺
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
26.07.25	KR Reykjavík - Breiðablik	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.07.25	Lech Poznań - Breiðablik	7:1 ✺
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
19.07.25	Breiðablik - Vestri	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
17.08.23	Breiðablik - Zrinjski Mostar	1:0
10.08.23	Zrinjski Mostar - Breiðablik	6:2

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