Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 14 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Kópavogsvöllur (Kópavogur)

Referee: Papapetrou A. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Iceland	SÝN Sport Ísland


	Breiðablik		Zrinjski Mostar

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2.25	3.3	3
	2.08	3.25	3.55	Watch
	2.06	3.21	3.73
	3.51	3.58	2.00	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3
	2.16	3.42	3.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.85)	3.31 ↓ (3.31)	3.21 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Breiðablik
41.1%

Draw
29%

Zrinjski Mostar
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

28.1%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

28.2%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Breiðablik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Breiðablik's performance.

Zrinjski Mostar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Zrinjski Mostar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Breiðablik than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Breiðablik that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zrinjski Mostar than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Zrinjski Mostar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	18.7%	6.2%

Breiðablik - Zrinjski Mostar Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Breiðablik will win (votes: 24 - 75%). Zrinjski will win (votes: 2 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Breiðablik: 60% – 90%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Breiðablik (votes: 9 - 60%). Zrinjski (votes: 1 - 6.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Breiðablik (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Breiðablik (votes: 10 - 62.5%). Zrinjski (votes: 1 - 6.3%). Tie (votes: 5 - 31.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Einarsson A. (G) 4. Orrason A. 44. Muminovic D. 21. Margeirsson V. 19. Jonsson K. 7. Gunnlaugsson H. (C) 17. Valgeirsson V. 8. Einarsson V. 15. Thorsteinsson A. 77. Thomsen T. 9. Omarsson O.	18. Karacic G. (G) 50. Memija K. 27. Jakovljevic S. 4. Barisic H. 12. Mamic P. 21. Savic I. 20. Ivancic A. 22. Pranjic J. 10. Kis T. 9. Mikic L. 99. Bilbija N. (C)
Substitutes
39. Agustsson B. 11. Bjarnason A. 32. Bjorgvinsson K. 12. Bragason B. (G) 31. Gunnleifsson G. 29. Hallsson G. 18. Ingvarsson D. 6. Jonsson A. 23. Kristinsson K. 33. Snaeholm G. (G) 10. Steindorsson K. 38. Waren M.	77. Abramovic K. 55. Dujmovic D. 3. Filipovic B. 6. Karacic D. 40. Ljubic M. (G) 90. Majic T. 5. Masic I. 14. Sakota M. 44. Sunjic T. 23. Surdanovic S. 17. Susak A. 1. Sutkovic A. (G)
Coaches
Arnason H.	Stimac I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Bilbija N. ⚽,
16', Gunnlaugsson H. 🟨,
37', Savic I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', 0 - 2, Valgeirsson V. (Own goal), Kis T. (A),
61', 1 - 2, Gunnlaugsson H. (Pen),
62', Einarsson V. ↓, Steindorsson K. ↑,
62', Omarsson O. ↓, Ingvarsson D. ↑,
62', Orrason A. ↓, Jonsson A. ↑,
68', Muminovic D. 🟨,
73', Kis T. ↓, Majic T. ↑,
79', Jonsson A. 🟨,
80', Mikic L. ↓, Abramovic K. ↑,
85', Jonsson K. ↓, Kristinsson K. ↑,
85', Valgeirsson V. ↓, Bjarnason A. ↑,
89', Bilbija N. ↓, Surdanovic S. ↑,
89', Pranjic J. ↓, Sakota M. ↑,
90+2', Jonsson A. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-1. 2nd leg.

Breiðablik is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Zrinjski has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Breiðablik may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Breiðablik won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:7. (average 1.3:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Breiðablik won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Breiðablik UBK
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
10.08.25	Valur - Breiðablik	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.08.25	Zrinjski Mostar - Breiðablik	1:1 ✺
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
03.08.25	Breiðablik - KA Akureyri	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.07.25	Breiðablik - Lech Poznań	0:1 ✺
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
26.07.25	KR Reykjavík - Breiðablik	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTTLT
- Zrinjski Mostar
UEFA Europa League
07.08.25	Zrinjski Mostar - Breiðablik	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.07.25	Zrinjski Mostar - Slovan Bratislava	2:2 ✺
22.07.25	Slovan Bratislava - Zrinjski Mostar	4:0 ✺
15.07.25	Zrinjski Mostar - Virtus	2:1 ✺
08.07.25	Virtus - Zrinjski Mostar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
07.08.25	Zrinjski Mostar - Breiðablik	1:1
17.08.23	Breiðablik - Zrinjski Mostar	1:0
10.08.23	Zrinjski Mostar - Breiðablik	6:2

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