Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 9

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira (Cernache do Bonjardim)


	Vitória de Sernache		Peniche

	1	X	2
	1.78	3.2	4.25
	1.75	3.21	4.45
	1.79	3.26	4.42	Watch
	1.77	3.24	4.39
	1.81	3.25	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (1.82)	3.23 ↓ (3.3)	4.3 ↑ (3.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória de Sernache
50.9%

Draw
28%

Peniche
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

27.5%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51%

26.9%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória de Sernache has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Peniche has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória de Sernache than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peniche than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Vitória de Sernache - Peniche Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
90+9', 🟥,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sernache won 2.

Sernache is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Peniche is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Sernache is seen as the favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Sernache won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sernache won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitória de Sernache
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
02.11.25	Oliveira Hospital - Vitória de Sernache	0:0 ✺
26.10.25	Vitória de Sernache - Marinhense	4:0 ✺
05.10.25	SC Lusitânia - Vitória de Sernache	2:4 ✺
28.09.25	Vitória de Sernache - União da Serra	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.25	Vitória de Sernache - Portimonense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TWWWL
- GD Peniche
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
02.11.25	Peniche - Os Marialvas	0:1 ✺
26.10.25	Naval - Peniche	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	Peniche - Mortágua	4:0 ✺
28.09.25	Fatima - Peniche	3:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Peniche - 1 Dezembro	4:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
17.03.24	Peniche - Vitória de Sernache	2:0
03.12.23	Vitória de Sernache - Peniche	0:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
01.05.22	Peniche - Vitória de Sernache	0:3
03.04.22	Vitória de Sernache - Peniche	1:0
06.03.22	Vitória de Sernache - Peniche	0:0
12.12.21	Peniche - Vitória de Sernache	2:2

Vitória de Sernache - Peniche: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide