Match Info

Serie D - Group E - Round 30

Date: 2 April 2026, Thursday


	Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro		Montevarchi

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.05	1.98
	3.83	3.07	1.93
	3.9	2.6	2.21	Watch
	3.8	2.88	1.95
	3.89	3.02	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.8 ↑ (2.96)	2.92 ↓ (3.08)	2 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
23.8%

Draw
31%

Montevarchi
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

29.6%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

28.5%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro's form might have worsened.

Montevarchi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Montevarchi's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montevarchi than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro - Montevarchi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
67', 🟥,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Recent form of Sansepolcro has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Montevarchi is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Montevarchi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Montevarchi could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Sansepolcro won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.5:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Sansepolcro won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Montevarchi	6	2	1	3	9:11	-2	7

Last Results with these Odds

Montevarchi - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 39.64%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
Italian Serie D - Group E
29.03.26	Foligno - Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro	2:0 ✺
25.03.26	Ghiviborgo - Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro - Seravezza Pozzi	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro - San Donato Tavarnelle	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Siena - Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLTTL
- Montevarchi Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group E
28.03.26	Montevarchi - Poggibonsi	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Follonica Gavorrano - Montevarchi	0:0 ✺
15.03.26	Montevarchi - Tau Altopascio	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Scandicci - Montevarchi	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Montevarchi - Camaiore	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group E
23.11.25	Montevarchi - Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro	1:1
28.04.24	Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro - Montevarchi	0:1
16.12.23	Montevarchi - Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro	1:1
Italian Serie D - Group D
26.11.17	Montevarchi - Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro	2:0

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro - Montevarchi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide