Match Info

Serie D - Group E - Round 29

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday


	Montevarchi		Poggibonsi

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.05	3.75
	1.91	3.02	3.79
	1.95	3.15	3.8	Watch
	1.95	2.9	3.8
	1.94	3.05	3.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (1.96)	3.03 ↓ (3.2)	3.8 ↑ (3.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Montevarchi
46.6%

Draw
29.7%

Poggibonsi
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

28.4%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

26.7%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montevarchi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Poggibonsi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montevarchi than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

The ML Model estimate for Poggibonsi aligns with the current prediction.

Montevarchi - Poggibonsi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
79', 0 - 1, ⚽,
87', 🟥,
90+6', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 and 16 in the zone Serie D ~ Group E (Play Out: )).

Montevarchi is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Poggibonsi has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Montevarchi could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Montevarchi won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home match between the teams, Montevarchi won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Montevarchi	6	2	1	3	9:11	-2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montevarchi Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group E
22.03.26	Follonica Gavorrano - Montevarchi	0:0 ✺
15.03.26	Montevarchi - Tau Altopascio	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Scandicci - Montevarchi	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Montevarchi - Camaiore	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Orvietana - Montevarchi	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 TWTWW
- Poggibonsi
Italian Serie D - Group E
22.03.26	Poggibonsi - Trestina	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Seravezza Pozzi - Poggibonsi	2:2 ✺
01.03.26	Poggibonsi - Grosseto	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	San Donato Tavarnelle - Poggibonsi	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Poggibonsi - Foligno	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group E
16.11.25	Poggibonsi - Montevarchi	0:1
02.02.25	Poggibonsi - Montevarchi	2:2
25.02.24	Poggibonsi - Montevarchi	1:0
22.10.23	Montevarchi - Poggibonsi	2:0

Montevarchi - Poggibonsi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide