Match Info

Serie D - Group B - Round 18

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Vogherese		Oltrepo

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	2.75
	2.25	3.15	2.88
	2.45	3.26	2.65	Watch
	2.49	3.15	2.54
	2.5	3.14	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (2.1)	3.16 ↓ (3.23)	2.69 ↓ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vogherese
37.8%

Draw
28.6%

Oltrepo
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

28.1%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

28.4%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vogherese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vogherese's form might have worsened.

Oltrepo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vogherese than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vogherese, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oltrepo than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Oltrepo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Vogherese - Oltrepo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', 0 - 1, Hrom D. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Serie D ~ Group B (Play Out: ) and 11).

Recent form of Vogherese has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Oltrepo has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Vogherese might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Vogherese won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Vogherese won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AVC Vogherese 1919
Italian Serie D - Group B
21.12.25	Vogherese - Milan Futuro	2:2 ✺
14.12.25	Caldiero Terme - Vogherese	2:2 ✺
07.12.25	Vogherese - Virtus CiseranoBergamo	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Casatese - Vogherese	4:1 ✺
23.11.25	Vogherese - Chievo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TTLLL
- FBC Oltrepo
Italian Serie D - Group B
21.12.25	Brusaporto - Oltrepo	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Oltrepo - Villa Valle	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	Sondrio - Oltrepo	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Oltrepo - Folgore Caratese	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Real Calepina - Oltrepo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
07.09.25	Oltrepo - Vogherese	1:0
Italian Serie D - Group A
04.05.25	Vogherese - Oltrepo	3:1
22.12.24	Oltrepo - Vogherese	2:2

Vogherese - Oltrepo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide