Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio José Amalfitani (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Vélez Sársfield		Racing

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.8	3.5	Watch
	2.6	2.87	2.95
	2.38	2.78	3.45	Watch
	2.71	2.95	2.94
	2.41	2.87	3.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.64)	2.85 ↓ (2.95)	3.29 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vélez Sársfield
38%

Draw
33.2%

Racing
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

32%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

32%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Racing has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Racing than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	45.5%	18.2%

Vélez Sársfield - Racing Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Vélez will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Racing will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marchiori T. (G) 21. Gordon J. 2. Mammana E. 18. Magallan L. 3. Gomez E. 23. Aliendro R. 8. Galvan T. 26. Bouzat A. (C) 28. Carrizo M. 7. Santos M. 39. Machuca I.	25. Cambeses F. (G) 34. Mura F. 18. Pardo F. 23. Colombo N. 27. Rojas G. 5. Nardoni J. 13. Sosa S. (C) 32. Almendra A. E. 15. Martirena Torres G. N. 9. Adrian Martinez 28. Solari S.
Substitutes
50. Andrada T. 5. Baeza C. 37. Cavanagh T. 15. Godoy D. 14. Lagos A. 22. Lanzini M. 12. Montero A. (G) 29. Monzon F. 11. Pellegrini M. 20. Pizzini F. 6. Quiros A. 10. Valdes D.	21. Arias G. (G) 77. Balboa A. 17. Conechny T. 3. Di Cesare M. 2. Garcia A. 35. Quiros S. 19. Rodriguez I. 26. Sanchez R. 22. Torres E. 7. Vergara D. 10. Vietto L. 11. Zaracho M.
Coaches
Barros Schelotto G.	Costas G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Martirena Torres G. N. 🟨,
34', Magallan L. 🟨,
34', Adrian Martinez 🟨,
43', Magallan L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Machuca I. ↓, Lanzini M. ↑,
46', Galvan T. ↓, Quiros A. ↑,
53', 0 - 1, Adrian Martinez ⚽, Mura F. (A),
65', Martirena Torres G. N. ↓, Vergara D. ↑,
67', Santos M. ↓, Pellegrini M. ↑,
68', Almendra A. E. 🟨,
76', Solari S. 🟨,
76', Almendra A. E. ↓, Zaracho M. ↑,
76', Solari S. ↓, Conechny T. ↑,
78', Gordon J. ↓, Lagos A. ↑,
86', Carrizo M. 🟨,
89', Rojas G. ↓, Rodriguez I. ↑,
89', Adrian Martinez ↓, Balboa A. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vélez won 1.

Vélez has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Racing has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Racing may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Racing has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Vélez: Andrada I. (Lower Back Injury) Braian Romero (Muscle Injury) Fernandez T. (Knee Injury) Garcia J. (Broken ankle)

There will not play in Racing: Di Cesare M. (Inactive) Fernandez A. (Inactive) Rodriguez I. (Inactive) Rojo M. (Red Card) Zuculini B. (Red Card)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Vélez won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 10:21. (average 0.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Vélez won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 0.8:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Vélez Sársfield - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 35.73%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.09.25	Huracán Buenos Aires - Vélez Sársfield	0:0 ✺
Argentinian Super Cup
06.09.25	Vélez Sársfield - Central Córdoba	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
30.08.25	Vélez Sársfield - Lanús	3:0 ✺
25.08.25	Godoy Cruz - Vélez Sársfield	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.08.25	Vélez Sársfield - Fortaleza	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 TWWWW
- Racing Club de Avellaneda
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.09.25	Racing - San Lorenzo	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Racing - Unión Santa Fe	2:3 ✺
24.08.25	Argentinos Juniors - Racing	4:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.08.25	Racing - Peñarol de Montevideo	3:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
15.08.25	Racing - Tigre	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.10.24	Vélez Sársfield - Racing	1:0
17.06.23	Racing - Vélez Sársfield	2:1
16.06.22	Racing - Vélez Sársfield	2:0
17.07.21	Vélez Sársfield - Racing	0:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
16.05.21	Vélez Sársfield - Racing	0:1 penalties
11.12.20	Vélez Sársfield - Racing	2:1
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.08.19	Vélez Sársfield - Racing	2:2

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