Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 19 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Juan Domingo Perón (Avellaneda)

Referee: Roldan W. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Belarus	Okko Sport
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	Disney+
South-america	ESPN 5 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	LaLiga+ app, LaLiga+
Turkey	Exxen, S Sport, S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Latino, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Racing		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.48	4	7.5	Watch
	1.51	3.9	6.5
	1.46	3.95	7.4	Watch
	1.49	3.99	8.01
	1.10	9.02	24.08	Watch
	1.5	3.9	6.5	Watch
	1.5	4.11	7.6	Watch
	1.73	3.45	5.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.73)	4.54 ↑ (3.45)	9.11 ↑ (5.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Racing
67.3%

Draw
21.8%

Peñarol de Montevideo
10.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.6%

27.4%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.5%

28.8%

17.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Racing has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Racing's performance.

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Peñarol de Montevideo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Racing than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Racing that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Peñarol de Montevideo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.2%	13.3%	4.4%

Racing - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: Racing will win (36 of 44 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.42% – 93.22%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Racing will win (19 of 23 users predict this - 82.61%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Arias G. (C) 18. Pardo F. 13. Sosa S. 6. Rojo M. 15. Martirena Torres G. N. 5. Nardoni J. 32. Almendra A. E. 27. Rojas G. 28. Solari S. 77. Balboa A. 9. Adrian Martinez	12. Cortes B. (G) 17. Gularte E. 23. Mendez J. 34. Herrera N. 15. Olivera M. (C) 7. Cabrera J. 29. Remedi E. 24. Jesus Trindade 5. Sosa I. 80. David Terans 11. Silvera M.
Substitutes
25. Cambeses F. (G) 23. Colombo N. 17. Conechny T. 3. Di Cesare M. 24. Fernandez A. 2. Garcia A. 34. Mura F. 19. Rodriguez I. 22. Torres E. 7. Vergara D. 10. Vietto L. 36. Zuculini B.	19. Arezo M. 25. Campana M. (G) 16. Couture L. 10. Fernandez L. 50. Garcia Cardozo D. G. 27. Lucas Hernandez 20. Milans P. 4. Rodriguez J. 21. Silva G. 22. Suarez D. 32. Umpierrez L. 8. Villalba H.
Coaches
Costas G.	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Adrian Martinez ⚽, Solari S. (A),
15', 1 - 1, Herrera N. ⚽, Remedi E. (A),
27', Gularte E. 🟨,
37', Martirena Torres G. N. 🟨,
45+2', Cortes B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
58', Pardo F. 🟨,
61', David Terans 🟨,
61', David Terans ↓, Milans P. ↑,
70', Silvera M. ↓, Arezo M. ↑,
73', Almendra A. E. ↓, Vergara D. ↑,
73', Rojo M. ↓, Colombo N. ↑,
79', Solari S. ↓, Conechny T. ↑,
83', 2 - 1, Adrian Martinez (Pen),
87', Rojo M. 🟥,
87', Zuculini B. 🟥,
88', Arezo M. 🟨,
90+3', Arias G. ↓, Cambeses F. ↑,
90+3', Balboa A. ↓, Vietto L. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 1, Pardo F. ⚽, Martirena Torres G. N. (A),
90+4', Remedi E. ↓, Umpierrez L. ↑,
90+4', Sosa I. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
90+4', Cabrera J. ↓, Fernandez L. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.

Racing is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Peñarol is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Peñarol has had a series of home games.

In this match, Racing is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Racing: Martirena Torres G. N. (Inactive) Nardoni J. (Inactive) Rojo M. (Inactive) Sosa S. (Inactive) Zaracho M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Peñarol: Baez J. (Inactive) Cruz A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Peñarol: Fernandez L. (Injury) Milans P. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Racing won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Club de Avellaneda
Argentinian Liga Profesional
15.08.25	Racing - Tigre	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
12.08.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
09.08.25	Boca Juniors - Racing	1:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
03.08.25	Racing - Deportivo Riestra	3:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
26.07.25	Racing - Estudiantes La Plata	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLTWL
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
15.08.25	Boston River - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
12.08.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
09.08.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	3:0 ✺
01.08.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Progreso	2:1 ✺
06.07.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
12.08.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing	1:0

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