Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 13

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday


	Warrington Rylands		Morpeth Town

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.75	3.9
	1.64	4.26	4.08
	1.69	3.65	4.31
	1.81	3.6	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.79)	3.82 ↑ (3.51)	4.02 ↑ (3.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Warrington Rylands
53.4%

Draw
23.9%

Morpeth Town
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

25.8%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.8%

24.7%

22.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Warrington Rylands has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Morpeth Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Warrington Rylands than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

The ML Model estimate for Morpeth Town aligns with the current prediction.

Warrington Rylands - Morpeth Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Warrington Rylands (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Kiwomya A. ⚽,
28', 2 - 0, Hardcastle B. ⚽,
31', 3 - 0, Wood H. ⚽,
43', 4 - 0, Kiwomya A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
56', 4 - 1, Giraud C. ⚽,
75', 4 - 2, Dowling W. ⚽,
90+1', 4 - 3, James L. ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: ) and 21 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Warrington Rylands won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Warrington Rylands may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Warrington Rylands is seen as the favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Warrington Rylands won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:5. (average 2.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Warrington Rylands won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 1.7:0.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Warrington Rylands - the odds 1.79 are the expected chance of winning is 50.51%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Warrington Rylands
English NPL Premier Division
07.10.25	Guiseley - Warrington Rylands	0:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
04.10.25	Dunston UTS - Warrington Rylands	2:1 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
27.09.25	Hebburn Town - Warrington Rylands	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Warrington Rylands - Hyde United	4:2 ✺
16.09.25	Warrington Rylands - Ashton United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLTWT
- Morpeth Town
English FA Trophy
07.10.25	Runcorn Linnets - Morpeth Town	1:2 penalties ✺
English FA Cup
27.09.25	Morpeth Town - Southport	1:3 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
20.09.25	Guiseley - Morpeth Town	3:1 ✺
16.09.25	United of Manchester - Morpeth Town	0:0 ✺
09.09.25	Morpeth Town - Hebburn Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
26.04.25	Warrington Rylands - Morpeth Town	1:1
24.08.24	Morpeth Town - Warrington Rylands	0:3
30.03.24	Morpeth Town - Warrington Rylands	1:3
26.08.23	Warrington Rylands - Morpeth Town	2:0
22.04.23	Morpeth Town - Warrington Rylands	3:3
19.11.22	Warrington Rylands - Morpeth Town	2:0

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