Match Info

Victoria Premier League - Round 12

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Western United U21		North Geelong Warriors

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.9	2.75
	1.98	4.15	2.78
	2.01	4.22	2.83
	2	4.3	2.83	Watch
	1.95	4	2.75
	2.01	4.46	2.78
	2.28	3.6	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.33)	4.09 ↑ (3.8)	2.74 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Western United U21
44.7%

Draw
22.2%

North Geelong Warriors
33.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.7%

23.7%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

23.5%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Western United U21 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Western United U21's performance.

North Geelong Warriors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Western United U21 than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Western United U21 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Geelong Warriors than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Western United U21 - North Geelong Warriors Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, ⚽,
27', 1 - 1, ⚽,
30', 2 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', 2 - 2, ⚽,
90+1', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 7).

Western United U21 has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

North Geelong's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Western United U21 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Western United U21 might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Western United U21 won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Including home match between the teams, Western United U21 won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Western United U21
Australian Victoria Premier League
02.05.26	Langwarrin - Western United U21	3:2 ✺
26.04.26	Western United U21 - Melbourne Knights	3:2 ✺
19.04.26	Western United U21 - Brunswick City	2:4 ✺
11.04.26	Bulleen Lions - Western United U21	2:0 ✺
28.03.26	Western United U21 - Brunswick Juventus	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWLLL
- North Geelong Warriors
Australian Victoria Premier League
02.05.26	North Geelong Warriors - Brunswick City	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Bulleen Lions - North Geelong Warriors	3:0 ✺
18.04.26	North Geelong Warriors - Brunswick Juventus	3:4 ✺
11.04.26	Melbourne Victory Youth - North Geelong Warriors	2:1 ✺
28.03.26	North Geelong Warriors - Eltham Redbacks	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian Victoria Premier League
23.06.24	Western United U21 - North Geelong Warriors	2:2

Western United U21 - North Geelong Warriors