Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 21

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: KGHM Zaglebie Arena (Lubin)

Referee: Szczerbowicz M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Sport 2
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
World	Sport 2 Baltic


	Zagłębie Lubin		Raków Częstochowa

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.1	1.91	Watch
	3.65	3.2	2.02	Watch
	4.13	3.38	2.04
	3.89	3.34	2.04	Watch
	3.93	3.24	1.96	Watch
	4	3.33	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.9 ↑ (2.97)	3.27 ↑ (3.07)	1.99 ↓ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zagłębie Lubin
24.1%

Draw
28.7%

Raków Częstochowa
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30%

29.1%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

28.1%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zagłębie Lubin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Zagłębie Lubin's form might have worsened.

Raków Częstochowa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Raków Częstochowa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	7.7%	76.9%

Zagłębie Lubin - Raków Częstochowa Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Raków will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Raków: 54% – 99.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Raków (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Raków (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Raków (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Buric J. (G) 13. Grzybek M. 4. Michalski D. 25. Nalepa M. (C) 3. Yakuba R. 39. Kocaba F. 26. Kolan J. 7. Kowalczyk S. 20. Dziewiatowski M. 16. Corluka J. 9. Kosidis M.	48. Zych O. (G) 7. Tudor F. (C) 25. Racovitan B. 4. Svarnas S. 19. Ameyaw M. 6. Repka O. 23. Struski K. 20. Silva J. C. 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 8. Pienko T. 18. Brunes J.
Substitutes
8. Dabrowski D. 12. Gikiewicz R. (G) 84. Ligocki J. 35. Lucic L. 6. Makowski T. 88. Mlinaric M. 31. Orlikowski I. 18. Radwanski A. 44. Regula M. 19. Sypek J. 17. Szabo L. 11. Wozniak A.	22. Abraham O. 11. Adriano 39. Brusberg I. 5. Bulat M. 35. Ilenic M. 9. Makuch P. 2. Mosor A. 21. Napieraj J. 17. Rocha L. 1. Trelowski K. (G) 29. Zolneczko W. (G)
Coaches
Ojrzynski L.	Tomczyk L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Repka O. 🟨,
45+2', Kocaba F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Dziewiatowski M. ↓, Regula M. ↑,
46', Kosidis M. ↓, Szabo L. ↑,
46', Kowalczyk S. ↓, Radwanski A. ↑,
50', Silva J. C. 🟨,
61', Kolan J. 🟨,
66', Pienko T. ↓, Rocha L. ↑,
66', Struski K. ↓, Bulat M. ↑,
78', Ameyaw M. ↓, Ilenic M. ↑,
83', Diaby-Fadiga L. ↓, Makuch P. ↑,
90', Radwanski A. 🟨,
90+1', Kocaba F. ↓, Dabrowski D. ↑,
90+2', Rocha L. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Zagłębie Lubin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Raków has had a series of home games.

Raków will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Zagłębie Lubin: Hladun D. (Shoulder Injury) Lawniczak A. (Inactive) Popielec C. (Inactive) Regula M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Raków: Dawidowicz P. (Inactive) Kochergin V. (Knee Injury) Otieno E. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Raków: Arsenic Z. (Leg Injury) Lopez I. (Inactive)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 14:28. (average 0.9:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Zagłębie Lubin won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1.2:1.3).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Zaglebie: 0.83%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Zaglebie	10	4	3	3	12:13	-1	15
18	Rakow	10	1	0	9	13:25	-12	3

Last Results with these Odds

Zagłębie Lubin - the odds 2.97 are the expected chance of winning is 30.03%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zagłębie Lubin
Polish Ekstraklasa
06.02.26	Korona Kielce - Zagłębie Lubin	1:2 ✺
30.01.26	Zagłębie Lubin - GKS Katowice	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
21.01.26	Levski Sofia - Zagłębie Lubin	0:0 ✺
16.01.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Qarabağ Agdam	1:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.12.25	Raków Częstochowa - Zagłębie Lubin	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.5 WLTLW
- Raków Częstochowa
Polish Ekstraklasa
08.02.26	Raków Częstochowa - Radomiak Radom	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Wisła Płock - Raków Częstochowa	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
23.01.26	Raków Częstochowa - Bačka Topola	Canceled ✺
23.01.26	Raków Częstochowa - Vojvodina	3:1 ✺
14.01.26	Raków Częstochowa - Ludogorets Razgrad	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TL?WT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
14.12.25	Raków Częstochowa - Zagłębie Lubin	0:1
31.03.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Raków Częstochowa	0:2
22.09.24	Raków Częstochowa - Zagłębie Lubin	5:1
04.05.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Raków Częstochowa	2:0
05.11.23	Raków Częstochowa - Zagłębie Lubin	5:0
27.05.23	Raków Częstochowa - Zagłębie Lubin	1:1
12.11.22	Zagłębie Lubin - Raków Częstochowa	1:2

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