Match Info

POLAND: DIVISION 1 - ROUND 25

Date: 1 April 2024, Monday

Location: ArcelorMittal Park (Sosnowiec)

Referee: Szczech L. (Pol)


	Zagłębie Sosnowiec		GKS Katowice

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.4	1.85
	3.75	3.3	1.88
	3.75	3.5	1.95	Watch
	4.41	3.56	1.87
	4.37	3.54	1.85
	3.7	3.4	1.83
	4.16	3.54	1.8
	3.85	3.2	1.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.97 ↑ (3.2)	3.43 ↑ (3.1)	1.86 ↓ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zagłębie Sosnowiec
23.3%

Draw
27%

GKS Katowice
49.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

29.3%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

28.8%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zagłębie Sosnowiec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

GKS Katowice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting GKS Katowice's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zagłębie Sosnowiec than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for GKS Katowice than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for GKS Katowice, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	0%	92.9%

Zagłębie Sosnowiec - GKS Katowice Predictions

Users Predictions: GKS Katowice will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Shevchenko O. (G) 25. Szostek P. 29. Rozwandowicz M. 3. Sukhotskyi A. 7. Polyarus A. 14. Bonecki S. 10. Janota M. (C) 23. Matynia H. 6. Dovgyi O. 97. Sokol D. 11. Fabry M.	1. Kudla D. (G) 14. Komor A. 2. Kuusk M. 4. Jedrych A. (C) 23. Wasielewski M. 6. Kozubal A. 5. Repka O. 16. Rogala G. 11. Blad A. 17. Marzec M. 7. Bergier S.
Substitutes
9. Bilinski K. 96. Calinski P. 18. Guezen D. 20. Kirejczyk G. 33. Kos M. (G) 5. Lipka K. 17. Valencia J. 77. Wrzesinski K. 95. Zielonka N.	8. Aleman C. 18. Arak J. 21. Baranowicz B. 3. Janiszewski G. 13. Jaroszek B. 10. Mak M. 19. Pietrzyk K. 31. Shibata S. 33. Szczuka P. (G)
Coaches
Fornalik W.	Gorak R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Kozubal A. ⚽,
28', Bonecki S. 🟨,
40', Blad A. 🟨,
44', Bonecki S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Fabry M. ↓, Wrzesinski K. ↑,
49', 0 - 2, Rogala G. ⚽,
56', 0 - 3, Marzec M. ⚽,
63', Janota M. (Pen),
64', Matynia H. ↓, Calinski P. ↑,
64', Polyarus A. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
65', Sokol D. ↓, Bilinski K. ↑,
69', Wasielewski M. ↓, Aleman C. ↑,
71', Janota M. ↓, Guezen D. ↑,
75', 0 - 4, Aleman C. ⚽,
77', Repka O. ↓, Shibata S. ↑,
77', Marzec M. ↓, Mak M. ↑,
77', Bergier S. ↓, Arak J. ↑,
82', Blad A. ↓, Pietrzyk K. ↑,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Division 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Zagłębie Sosnowiec won 3.

Zagłębie Sosnowiec is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

GKS Katowice is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

GKS Katowice could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

GKS Katowice will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Zagłębie Sosnowiec won 8 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 22-20.

Including matches at home between the teams Zagłębie Sosnowiec won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zagłębie Sosnowiec
Club Friendly
22.03.24	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Karviná	0:1 ✺
Polish Division 1
15.03.24	Lechia Gdańsk - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	4:0 ✺
10.03.24	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Odra Opole	1:1 ✺
03.03.24	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała	0:0 ✺
25.02.24	Resovia Rzeszów - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLTTL
- GKS Katowice
Polish Division 1
17.03.24	GKS Katowice - Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała	5:0 ✺
10.03.24	Resovia Rzeszów - GKS Katowice	0:2 ✺
02.03.24	GKS Katowice - Znicz Pruszków	3:1 ✺
27.02.24	GKS Katowice - Miedź Legnica	2:0 ✺
24.02.24	Wisła Płock - GKS Katowice	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
15.09.23	GKS Katowice - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	0:1
25.02.23	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - GKS Katowice	2:1
06.08.22	GKS Katowice - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	3:1
Club Friendly
22.06.22	GKS Katowice - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	2:3
Polish Division 1
04.03.22	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - GKS Katowice	0:1
22.08.21	GKS Katowice - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	3:2
Club Friendly
17.07.21	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - GKS Katowice	2:2

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