Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 8

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday


	Ząbkovia Ząbki		Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.60	3.00
	2.08	3.70	2.70
	1.95	3.84	3.07
	1.93	4.14	3	Watch
	1.91	3.60	3.00
	1.95	3.74	3.12	Watch
	1.78	3.53	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.78)	3.74 ↑ (3.53)	3.06 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ząbkovia Ząbki
46.5%

Draw
24.1%

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

25.1%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

27.4%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ząbkovia Ząbki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ząbkovia Ząbki than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ząbkovia Ząbki, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ząbkovia Ząbki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Swiatek J. ⚽,
21', 2 - 0, Koterwas K. ⚽,
27', 3 - 0, Jankowski M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
50', 4 - 0, Jankowski M. ⚽,
72', 4 - 1, Poplawski K. ⚽,
90+1', 4 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 9).

Ząbkovia has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tomaszów Mazowiecki is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ząbkovia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Ząbkovia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Zabki	10	5	1	4	19:18	1	16
12	T. Mazowiecki	11	4	1	6	21:23	-2	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ząbkovia Ząbki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
05.09.26	Weszło - Ząbkovia Ząbki	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	Ząbkovia Ząbki - Pelikan Łowicz	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Warta Sieradz - Ząbkovia Ząbki	0:4 ✺
19.08.26	Ząbkovia Ząbki - Wigry Suwałki	1:1 ✺
14.08.26	Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki - Ząbkovia Ząbki	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LWWTL
- Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
05.09.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Troszyn	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - ŁKS Łódź II	4:3 ✺
19.08.26	Mławianka Mława - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	2:3 ✺
14.08.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - ŁKS Łomża	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
25.04.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Ząbkovia Ząbki	2:1
04.10.25	Ząbkovia Ząbki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	2:1

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