Match Info

Paulista A2 - First stage - Round 9

Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday


	Água Santa		Ferroviária

	1	X	2
	2.62	2.98	2.58	Watch
	2.66	2.93	2.97
	2.64	2.78	2.83	Watch
	2.63	2.75	2.75
	2.59	2.71	2.79
	2.6	2.75	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.59)	2.82 ↓ (3.1)	2.8 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Água Santa
34.8%

Draw
32.5%

Ferroviária
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

29.5%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

29.8%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Água Santa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Água Santa than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Água Santa - Ferroviária Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Ferroviária (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferroviária (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Netinho ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A2 (Second stage: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A2 (Second stage: )).

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Água Santa won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Água Santa won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Água Santa - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 35.27%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Água Santa
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
07.02.26	Água Santa - CA Juventus	2:1 ✺
01.02.26	Santo André - Água Santa	2:1 ✺
28.01.26	Internacional de Limeira - Água Santa	0:2 ✺
24.01.26	Água Santa - Sertãozinho	3:1 ✺
21.01.26	Piracicaba - Água Santa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLWWT
- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
07.02.26	Ferroviária - Piracicaba	0:1 ✺
01.02.26	Ferroviária - São Bento	2:0 ✺
28.01.26	Santo André - Ferroviária	0:1 ✺
24.01.26	Taubaté - Ferroviária	1:2 ✺
21.01.26	Ferroviária - Internacional de Limeira	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.01.23	Água Santa - Ferroviária	1:3
29.01.22	Ferroviária - Água Santa	1:0
08.02.20	Água Santa - Ferroviária	1:0
30.01.16	Água Santa - Ferroviária	1:0

Upcoming Matches