Match Info

BRAZIL: CAMPEONATO PARAENSE - PLAY OFFS - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 16 April 2023, Sunday


	Águia de Marabá		Castanhal

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.95	2.55
	2.3	2.95	2.95
	2.93	2.77	2.62
	2.73	3.13	2.5
	2.65	3	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↑ (2.06)	2.96 ↓ (3.11)	2.63 ↓ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Águia de Marabá
34.6%

Draw
30.8%

Castanhal
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

28.9%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

28.1%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Águia de Marabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Águia de Marabá's form might have worsened.

Castanhal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Castanhal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Águia de Marabá than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Águia de Marabá, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castanhal than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Castanhal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Águia de Marabá - Castanhal Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-1.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Águia de Marabá won 3.

Recent matches Águia de Marabá is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Castanhal is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Castanhal could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Águia de Marabá won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Águia de Marabá won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Águia de Marabá
Copa do Brasil
11.04.23	Fortaleza - Águia de Marabá	6:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paraense
08.04.23	Castanhal - Águia de Marabá	1:2 ✺
26.03.23	Águia de Marabá - Independente	0:0 ✺
19.03.23	Bragantino do Pará - Águia de Marabá	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
15.03.23	Águia de Marabá - Goiás	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 LWTTW
- Castanhal EC
Brazilian Campeonato Paraense
08.04.23	Castanhal - Águia de Marabá	1:2 ✺
26.03.23	Castanhal - Caeté	2:0 ✺
19.03.23	Castanhal - Remo	2:3 ✺
11.03.23	Itupiranga - Castanhal	2:1 ✺
25.02.23	Paysandu - Castanhal	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paraense
08.04.23	Castanhal - Águia de Marabá	1:2
05.02.23	Castanhal - Águia de Marabá	1:1
22.03.22	Castanhal - Águia de Marabá	0:1
19.03.22	Águia de Marabá - Castanhal	0:0
20.02.22	Águia de Marabá - Castanhal	1:0
01.03.20	Castanhal - Águia de Marabá	2:2
25.01.20	Águia de Marabá - Castanhal	2:1

Águia de Marabá - Castanhal: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide