Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 13 August 2025, Wednesday

Location: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium (Istanbul)

Referee: Milanovic M. (Srb)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 1
Serbia	SportKlub 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Turkey	Tabii, TRT 1


	İstanbul Başakşehir		Viking Stavanger

	1	X	2
	2	4	3	Watch
	1.95	3.7	3.2
	2.08	3.7	2.98	Watch
	2.09	3.85	3.14
	2.28	3.82	2.75	Watch
	2.11	3.94	3.2	Watch
	1.73	4.08	4.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.74)	3.87 ↓ (4.08)	3.23 ↓ (4.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

İstanbul Başakşehir
46.4%

Draw
24.4%

Viking Stavanger
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.4%

23.2%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.2%

22.5%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

İstanbul Başakşehir has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that İstanbul Başakşehir's form might have worsened.

Viking Stavanger has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Viking Stavanger's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for İstanbul Başakşehir than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for İstanbul Başakşehir, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Viking Stavanger than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Viking Stavanger, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.1%	4.3%	6.5%

İstanbul Başakşehir - Viking Stavanger Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Başakşehir (2.01) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Viking (2.28) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: İstanbul Başakşehir will win (40 of 45 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.71% – 98.07%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): İstanbul Başakşehir will win (24 of 30 users predict this - 80%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 34 Selected Experts predict this event. Başakşehir (votes: 25 - 73.5%). Viking (votes: 6 - 17.6%). Tie (votes: 3 - 8.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Sengezer M. (G) 6. Bulut O. 5. Duarte L. (C) 27. Ba O. 21. Operi C. 2. Ozdemir B. 23. Turuc D. 13. Crespo M. 17. Beyaz O. 14. Shomurodov E. 9. Selke D.	13. Klaesson K. (G) 5. Heggheim H. 25. Falchener H. 4. Roseth M. 18. Bjorshol S. 21. Baertelsen A. 8. Bell J. 19. Askildsen K. 7. Svendsen S. 16. Berisha V. 10. Tripic Z. (C)
Substitutes
45. Aslan B. 1. Babacan V. (G) 77. Brnic I. 10. Da Costa N. 34. Dilek Y. 98. Dilmen D. (G) 36. Ebosele F. 4. Ergun O. 20. Gunes U. 15. Gureler H. 3. Opoku J. 7. Sari Y.	14. Alte R. 24. Auklend V. 17. Austbo E. 20. Christiansen P. 9. D'Agostino N. 33. Hansen J. 2. Haugen H. J. 23. Haugen K. 26. Kvia-Egeskog S. 28. Mikaelsson H. 1. Ostbo A. (G) 3. Vevatne V.
Coaches
Atan C.	Jensen M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
34', 0 - 1, Bulut O. (Own goal),
40', 1 - 1, Selke D. ⚽, Shomurodov E. (A),
45', Heggheim H. ↓, Haugen H. J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Sengezer M. 🟨,
54', Beyaz O. 🟨,
57', Crespo M. 🟨,
61', Ba O. 🟨,
64', Turuc D. 🟨,
65', Beyaz O. ↓, Gunes U. ↑,
66', Selke D. ↓, Da Costa N. ↑,
68', Bjorshol S. ↓, Haugen K. ↑,
68', Svendsen S. ↓, Christiansen P. ↑,
69', Askildsen K. ↓, Kvia-Egeskog S. ↑,
72', Falchener H. 🟨,
78', Falchener H. ↓, D'Agostino N. ↑,
83', Shomurodov E. ↓, Sari Y. ↑,
85', Baertelsen A. 🟨,
89', Turuc D. ↓, Ebosele F. ↑,
89', Crespo M. ↓, Gureler H. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 3-1. 2nd leg.

Başakşehir has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Viking is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Başakşehir may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Başakşehir has had a series of away games.

Başakşehir will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Başakşehir won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- İstanbul Başakşehir
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Viking Stavanger - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:3 ✺
31.07.25	İstanbul Başakşehir - Cherno More Varna	4:0 ✺
24.07.25	Cherno More Varna - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
17.07.25	Fortuna Düsseldorf - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:1 ✺
16.07.25	Reichenau - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWWWW
- Viking Stavanger FK
Norwegian Eliteserien
10.08.25	Sandefjord - Viking Stavanger	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Viking Stavanger - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:3 ✺
31.07.25	Koper - Viking Stavanger	3:5 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
27.07.25	Bryne - Viking Stavanger	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.07.25	Viking Stavanger - Koper	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Viking Stavanger - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:3

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