Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 9

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday


	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki		Jagiellonia II Białystok

	1	X	2
	2.12	3.65	2.72
	1.36	5.35	6.02	Watch
	2.16	3.68	2.75	Watch
	2.14	3.6	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2)	4.07 ↑ (3.7)	3.56 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki
49.4%

Draw
23.6%

Jagiellonia II Białystok
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

25%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

24.4%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Jagiellonia II Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia II Białystok than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Jagiellonia II Białystok Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Kucharczyk M. ⚽,
29', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
71', 1 - 2, ⚽,
80', 2 - 2, Kucharczyk M. ⚽,
85', 3 - 2, Kucharczyk M. ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Świt won 1.

Świt has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Jagiellonia II's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Świt might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Świt won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 16:22. (average 1.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Świt won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.4:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
13.09.25	Olimpia Elbląg - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Warta Sieradz	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Mławianka Mława - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	3:4 ✺
27.08.25	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - GKS Bełchatów	3:1 ✺
23.08.25	Widzew Łódź II - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TLWWL
- Jagiellonia II Białystok
Polish Division 3 - Group I
13.09.25	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Wisła Płock II	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Znicz Biała Piska	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	Legia II - Jagiellonia II Białystok	2:1 ✺
27.08.25	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Ząbkovia Ząbki	1:5 ✺
23.08.25	Olimpia Elbląg - Jagiellonia II Białystok	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
23.11.24	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	5:2
03.08.24	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Jagiellonia II Białystok	1:0
17.03.24	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	1:0
23.08.23	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Jagiellonia II Białystok	2:2
03.06.23	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Jagiellonia II Białystok	2:3
06.11.22	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	4:1
16.04.22	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Jagiellonia II Białystok	1:3

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