Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 16 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadion pod Dubnom (MSK Zilina) (Žilina)

Referee: Fesnic H. (Rou)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Hajduk TV
Slovakia	STVR2, STVR Sport, Voyo
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Žilina		Hajduk Split

	1	X	2
	2.80	3.60	2.20	Watch
	3.10	3.40	2.25
	2.90	3.45	2.25	Watch
	3.11	3.39	2.30
	3.04	3.35	2.29	Watch
	3.00	3.25	2.25
	3.16	3.39	2.38	Watch
	2.90	3.35	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↓ (3.34)	3.4 ↓ (3.63)	2.28 ↑ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Žilina
31.2%

Draw
27.6%

Hajduk Split
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.7%

25.4%

46.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.9%

23.8%

50.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Žilina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Hajduk Split has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hajduk Split might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Žilina than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Žilina that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hajduk Split than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hajduk Split could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.5%	7.3%	87.3%

Žilina - Hajduk Split Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Hajduk (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.20) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH +0.5 - Žilina (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Hajduk Split will win (48 of 54 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.51% – 97.27%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Žilina (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Hajduk (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Badzgon J. (G) 33. Paliscak T. 17. Minarik J. 28. Narimanidze A. 21. Hranica T. 6. Adang X. 66. Kacer M. (C) 20. Bari K. 7. Kosa F. 95. Roginic M. 16. Ilko P.	33. Silic T. (G) 22. Acapandie M. 36. Skelin M. 5. Van Hoorenbeeck A. 32. Hrgovic S. 4. Pajaziti A. 21. Pukstas R. 28. Brajkovic R. 37. Skoko N. 17. Melnjak D. (C) 11. Sego M.
Substitutes
9. Baleja P. 11. Bzdyl F. 24. Datko S. 23. Fasko M. 10. Florea A. 25. Kasa F. 2. Okal M. 77. Petruska R. 34. Prokop L. 31. Sipos D. (G) 14. Svoboda M. 26. Tarcsi T. (G)	19. Brruti E. 9. de Almeida D. 20. del Moral A. 3. Gabric R. 26. Guram A. 38. Hodak L. 1. Ivusic I. (G) 10. Livaja M. 15. Maresic D. 14. Raci R. 7. Sanyang A. 44. Stipica D. (G)
Coaches
Stano P.	Garcia G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', Hrgovic S. 🟨,
30', Van Hoorenbeeck A. 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 1, Van Hoorenbeeck A. ⚽, Hrgovic S. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Paliscak T. ↓, Okal M. ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Roginic M. ⚽, Kosa F. (A),
64', Skoko N. ↓, de Almeida D. ↑,
66', Kacer M. ↓, Bzdyl F. ↑,
66', Kosa F. ↓, Fasko M. ↑,
67', Adang X. 🟨,
72', Ilko P. ↓, Datko S. ↑,
75', Hrgovic S. ↓, Sanyang A. ↑,
75', Brajkovic R. ↓, Guram A. ↑,
82', Adang X. ↓, Florea A. ↑,
84', Sego M. ↓, Livaja M. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 1, Melnjak D. (Own goal),
90+2', Florea A. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-2.

Žilina has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Hajduk is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Hajduk could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Žilina won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MSK Žilina
UEFA Europa League
09.07.26	Hajduk Split - Žilina	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.07.26	Pardubice - Žilina	2:2 ✺
24.06.26	Dynamo Kyiv - Žilina	2:0 ✺
20.06.26	Žilina - Opava	1:1 ✺
Slovak Superliga
16.05.26	Žilina - Podbrezová	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLTL
- Hajduk Split
UEFA Europa League
09.07.26	Hajduk Split - Žilina	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.07.26	Celje - Hajduk Split	0:1 ✺
27.06.26	LNZ Cherkasy - Hajduk Split	0:1 ✺
23.06.26	Shkendija Tetovo - Hajduk Split	0:4 ✺
Croatian HNL
22.05.26	Hajduk Split - Vukovar 91	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
09.07.26	Hajduk Split - Žilina	2:0

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