Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Umag, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 July 2026, Thursday


	Alex Molcan		Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

	1	2
	2.30	1.62	Watch
	2.20	1.65	Watch
	2.28	1.63	Watch
	2.30	1.71
	2.19	1.71	Watch
	2.30	1.65
	2.25	1.65	Watch
	2.20	1.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.85)	1.65 ↑ (1.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Alex Molcan
42.3%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.8%

67.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

66.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Molcan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alex Molcan's performance.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Molcan than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alex Molcan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alejandro Davidovich Fokina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	0%	71.4%

Alex Molcan - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Molcan will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Davidovich Fokina will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Davidovich Fokina: 54% – 99.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Davidovich Fokina (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Molcan is ranked ATP: 101. Davidovich Fokina is ranked ATP: 20.

Molcan has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Davidovich Fokina is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Davidovich Fokina may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Davidovich Fokina is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Davidovich Fokina will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - the odds 1.39 are the expected chance of winning is 67.22%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Molcan
ATP Umag
15.07.26	Dino Prizmic - Alex Molcan	Prizmic D. Retired ✺
14.07.26	Alex Molcan - Valentin Royer	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
02.07.26	Jiri Lehecka - Alex Molcan	3:0 ✺
01.07.26	Alex Molcan - Daniel Altmaier	3:1 ✺
ATP Mallorca
22.06.26	Fabian Marozsan - Alex Molcan	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 ?WLWL
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ATP Umag
15.07.26	Marco Trungelliti - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
05.07.26	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	3:2 ✺
03.07.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Marton Fucsovics	3:0 ✺
01.07.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Fabian Marozsan	3:0 ✺
29.06.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLWWW

Upcoming Matches