Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 30 September 2026, Wednesday


	Alex Molcan		Arthur Rinderknech

	1	2
	2.30	1.62	Watch
	2.30	1.60
	2.33	1.60	Watch
	2.3	1.57	Watch
	2.40	1.59
	2.32	1.63	Watch
	2.29	1.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.53)	1.6 ↑ (1.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Molcan
40.8%

Arthur Rinderknech
59.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

63.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

68.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Molcan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Arthur Rinderknech has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Molcan than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alex Molcan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Rinderknech than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arthur Rinderknech could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Alex Molcan - Arthur Rinderknech Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rinderknech (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Arthur Rinderknech will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Molcan is ranked ATP: 96., and Rinderknech is ranked ATP: 33..

Both players have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Rinderknech could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Rinderknech is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Molcan has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 0:4 (averaging 0:2 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Arthur Rinderknech - the odds 1.48 are the expected chance of winning is 63.09%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Molcan
ATP Beijing
29.09.26	Marco Trungelliti - Alex Molcan	0:2 ✺
28.09.26	Alex Molcan - Vit Kopriva	2:1 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
20.09.26	Alex Molcan - Stefanos Tsitsipas	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Alex Molcan - Stefanos Sakellaridis	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.09.26	Alex Molcan - Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWLWL
- Arthur Rinderknech
Davis Cup World Group
19.09.26	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Arthur Rinderknech	2:1 ✺
18.09.26	Liam Draxl - Arthur Rinderknech	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
04.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Arthur Rinderknech	3:0 ✺
02.09.26	Jaume Munar - Arthur Rinderknech	0:3 ✺
30.08.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Arthur Rinderknech	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Davis Cup World Group
08.02.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Alex Molcan	2:0
ATP Basel
26.10.22	Alex Molcan - Arthur Rinderknech	0:2

Alex Molcan - Arthur Rinderknech: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide