Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Quebec City - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 17 August 2026, Monday


	Alexander Donski		Andrea Guerrieri

	1	2
			Watch
	2.80	1.36
	2.95	1.35
	3.1	1.4
	2.9	1.36
	3.05	1.38
	2.89	1.36	Watch
	2.9	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↑ (2.88)	1.37 ↑ (1.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Donski
31.7%

Andrea Guerrieri
68.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

68.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

64%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Donski has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Andrea Guerrieri has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexander Donski than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrea Guerrieri than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

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Preview

Donski is ranked ATP: 502. Guerrieri is ranked ATP: 189.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

Donski may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Guerrieri is considered a favorite.

We predict that Guerrieri will win today's game, with odds of 1.35.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Donski won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Andrea Guerrieri - the odds 1.35 are the expected chance of winning is 68.09%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Donski
ATP Challenger
07.08.26	Alexander Donski - Daniil Glinka	0:2 ✺
05.08.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Alexander Donski	0:2 ✺
04.08.26	Alexander Donski - Takuya Kumasaka	2:0 ✺
03.08.26	Alexander Donski - Nitin Kumar Sinha	2:0 ✺
02.08.26	Alexander Donski - Kenny De Schepper	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LWWWW
- Andrea Guerrieri
ATP Challenger
09.08.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Andrea Guerrieri	2:0 ✺
08.08.26	Andrea Guerrieri - Daniil Glinka	2:1 ✺
07.08.26	Michele Ribecai - Andrea Guerrieri	1:2 ✺
05.08.26	Viktor Durasovic - Andrea Guerrieri	1:2 ✺
04.08.26	Olle Wallin - Andrea Guerrieri	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
20.11.25	Alexander Donski - Andrea Guerrieri	0:2

Alexander Donski - Andrea Guerrieri: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide