Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Bergamo, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 18 November 2025, Tuesday


	Alexander Donski		Fausto Tabacco

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.44	2.6	Watch
	1.47	2.73
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.43	2.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↑ (1.35)	2.59 ↓ (3.02)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Donski
63.9%

Fausto Tabacco
36.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.1%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.7%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Donski has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alexander Donski's form might have worsened.

Fausto Tabacco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fausto Tabacco's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexander Donski than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alexander Donski, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fausto Tabacco than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fausto Tabacco, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Alexander Donski - Fausto Tabacco Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Donski (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Donski is ranked ATP: 731. Tabacco is ranked ATP: 826.

Donski has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tabacco has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Donski may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Donski might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Donski won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Donski
ATP Challenger
17.11.25	Federico Arnaboldi - Alexander Donski	1:2 ✺
16.11.25	Alexander Donski - Johan Nikles	2:1 ✺
12.10.25	Alexander Donski - Matthew Donald	1:2 ✺
28.09.25	Alexander Donski - Lilian Marmousez	0:2 ✺
21.09.25	Sumit Nagal - Alexander Donski	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWLLL
- Fausto Tabacco
ITF Tournaments
12.11.25	Fausto Tabacco - Andrea de Marchi	0:2 ✺
06.11.25	Marcel Zielinski - Fausto Tabacco	2:0 ✺
05.11.25	Andrea de Marchi - Fausto Tabacco	1:2 ✺
14.10.25	Manuel Mazza - Fausto Tabacco	2:0 ✺
30.09.25	Fausto Tabacco - Giorgio Tabacco	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
25.03.22	Fausto Tabacco - Alexander Donski	1:2

Alexander Donski - Fausto Tabacco: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide