Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Hurghada 2, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday


	Alexandr Binda		Daniil Ostapenkov

	1	2
	2.22	1.57
	2.25	1.56	Watch
	2.1	1.67
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.2	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (1.58)	1.59 ↓ (2.25)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexandr Binda
41.9%

Daniil Ostapenkov
58.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.7%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.9%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexandr Binda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alexandr Binda's form might have worsened.

Daniil Ostapenkov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Daniil Ostapenkov's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexandr Binda than the current prediction. (+15%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alexandr Binda, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniil Ostapenkov than the current prediction. (-15%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Daniil Ostapenkov, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Alexandr Binda - Daniil Ostapenkov Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Binda is ranked ATP: 445. Ostapenkov is ranked ATP: 737.

Binda is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Ostapenkov has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Binda may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Alexandr Binda - the odds 1.58 are the expected chance of winning is 58.69%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexandr Binda
ITF Tournaments
16.01.26	Dominik Kellovsky - Alexandr Binda	0:2 ✺
15.01.26	Thijs Boogaard - Alexandr Binda	1:2 ✺
14.01.26	Benjamin Pietri - Alexandr Binda	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
24.11.25	Alexandr Binda - Vladislav Melnic	1:2 ✺
24.11.25	Alexandr Binda - Mathys Erhard	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWWL?
- Daniil Ostapenkov
ITF Tournaments
16.01.26	Maxwell McKennon - Daniil Ostapenkov	0:2 ✺
15.01.26	Daniil Ostapenkov - Aleksandre Bakshi	2:0 ✺
09.01.26	Aleksandre Bakshi - Daniil Ostapenkov	2:0 ✺
08.01.26	David Eichenseher - Daniil Ostapenkov	0:2 ✺
07.01.26	Nicolas Parizzia - Daniil Ostapenkov	Parizzia N. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWLW?

Alexandr Binda - Daniil Ostapenkov: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide