Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Wuxi - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday


	Andre Ilagan		Hiroki Moriya

	1	2
			Watch
	1.55	2.25	Watch
	1.6	2.2	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.58	2.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 (1.58)	2.25 ↓ (2.29)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andre Ilagan
58.8%

Hiroki Moriya
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.2%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

45.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andre Ilagan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Hiroki Moriya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andre Ilagan than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hiroki Moriya than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

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Preview

Ilagan is ranked ATP: 342. Moriya is ranked ATP: 429.

Ilagan is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Moriya has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Moriya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ilagan is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ilagan won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Andre Ilagan - the odds 1.58 are the expected chance of winning is 59.17%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Hiroki Moriya - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 40.83%, but this team recently wins 23% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andre Ilagan
ATP Challenger
03.05.26	Andre Ilagan - Linang Xiao	2:1 ✺
30.04.26	Bu Yunchaokete - Andre Ilagan	2:0 ✺
29.04.26	Andre Ilagan - James McCabe	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Andre Ilagan - Kody Pearson	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Andre Ilagan - Xing Dao Chen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLWWW
- Hiroki Moriya
ATP Challenger
03.05.26	Pietro Orlando Fellin - Hiroki Moriya	1:2 ✺
26.04.26	Marat Sharipov - Hiroki Moriya	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Haoran Hu - Hiroki Moriya	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Beibit Zhukayev - Hiroki Moriya	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Hiroki Moriya - Philip Sekulic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
09.02.25	Hiroki Moriya - Andre Ilagan	0:2

Andre Ilagan - Hiroki Moriya: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide