Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 7, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 18 September 2026, Friday


	Andrea de Marchi		Andrey Chepelev

	1	2
			Watch
	2.60	1.42
	3.05	1.33
	2.42	1.47	Watch
	2.55	1.49
	2.59	1.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↓ (2.69)	1.43 ↑ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrea de Marchi
35.1%

Andrey Chepelev
64.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

65.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

65.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrea de Marchi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Andrey Chepelev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrea de Marchi than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrey Chepelev than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Andrea de Marchi - Andrey Chepelev Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

de Marchi is ranked ATP: 652., and Chepelev is ranked ATP: 393..

In recent outings, de Marchi has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Chepelev is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

de Marchi may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Chepelev holding a narrow advantage.

Our forecast points to a victory for Chepelev in today's match, at odds of 1.41.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrea de Marchi
ITF Tournaments
17.09.26	Andrea de Marchi - Garrett Johns	2:0 ✺
16.09.26	Andrea de Marchi - Marcello Serafini	2:0 ✺
15.09.26	Kirill Kivattsev - Andrea de Marchi	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
30.08.26	Norbert Gombos - Andrea de Marchi	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
28.08.26	Samuele Pieri - Andrea de Marchi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWWLL
- Andrey Chepelev
ITF Tournaments
17.09.26	Lorenzo Comino - Andrey Chepelev	0:2 ✺
16.09.26	Alessandro Battiston - Andrey Chepelev	0:2 ✺
14.09.26	Lorenzo Berto - Andrey Chepelev	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
07.09.26	Andrey Chepelev - Gianmarco Ferrari	0:2 ✺
06.09.26	Andrey Chepelev - Jeremy Gschwendtner	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWWLW

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