Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 7, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday


	Andrea de Marchi		Marcello Serafini

	1	2
			Watch
	1.72	1.98
	1.74	1.98
	1.72	1.98	Watch
	1.76	2.02
	1.69	1.97	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.56)	1.99 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrea de Marchi
53.5%

Marcello Serafini
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.7%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.4%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrea de Marchi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Andrea de Marchi's form might have worsened.

Marcello Serafini has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Marcello Serafini's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrea de Marchi than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Andrea de Marchi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marcello Serafini than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Marcello Serafini, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Andrea de Marchi - Marcello Serafini Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

de Marchi is ranked ATP: 652. Serafini is ranked ATP: 906.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

de Marchi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

de Marchi will hold a modest advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrea de Marchi
ITF Tournaments
15.09.26	Kirill Kivattsev - Andrea de Marchi	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
30.08.26	Norbert Gombos - Andrea de Marchi	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
28.08.26	Samuele Pieri - Andrea de Marchi	2:0 ✺
27.08.26	Aljaz Jeran - Andrea de Marchi	Jeran A. Retired ✺
26.08.26	Mattias Pisanu - Andrea de Marchi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLL?W
- Marcello Serafini
ITF Tournaments
14.09.26	Tristan McCormick - Marcello Serafini	1:2 ✺
03.09.26	Gabriele Crivellaro - Marcello Serafini	2:1 ✺
02.09.26	Marcello Serafini - Giovanni Oradini	2:0 ✺
08.08.26	Carl Emil Overbeck - Marcello Serafini	2:0 ✺
07.08.26	Marcello Serafini - Massimo Giunta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 WLWLW

Andrea de Marchi - Marcello Serafini: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide