Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Metepec, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday


	Andres Andrade		Alexis Galarneau

	1	2
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.85	1.8	Watch
	1.8	1.92	Watch
	1.91	1.8
	1.97	1.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.6)	1.82 ↑ (1.46)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andres Andrade
49.2%

Alexis Galarneau
50.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

64.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

62%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andres Andrade has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Andres Andrade's performance.

Alexis Galarneau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alexis Galarneau might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andres Andrade than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Andres Andrade that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexis Galarneau than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alexis Galarneau could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Andres Andrade - Alexis Galarneau Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Andrade will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Galarneau will win (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Andrade: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Andrade (votes: 1 - 50%). Galarneau (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Andrade is ranked ATP: 252. Galarneau is ranked ATP: 230.

In recent matches, Andrade has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Galarneau is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Andrade may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Galarneau will win today's game, with odds of 1.68.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andres Andrade
ATP Challenger
20.02.26	Juan Pablo Ficovich - Andres Andrade	1:2 ✺
19.02.26	Natan Rodrigues - Andres Andrade	0:2 ✺
17.02.26	Juan Sebastian Gomez - Andres Andrade	0:2 ✺
14.02.26	Stefan Dostanic - Andres Andrade	2:1 ✺
13.02.26	Braden Shick - Andres Andrade	Andrade A. walkover ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWL?
- Alexis Galarneau
ATP Challenger
20.02.26	Alexis Galarneau - Edward Winter	2:1 ✺
19.02.26	Alexis Galarneau - Cannon Kingsley	2:1 ✺
17.02.26	Alexis Galarneau - Nick Hardt	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Alexis Galarneau - Stefan Dostanic	0:2 ✺
14.02.26	Alexis Galarneau - Andre Ilagan	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWWLW

Andres Andrade - Alexis Galarneau: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide