Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 4, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 April 2026, Thursday


	Andrey Chepelev		Manuel Mazza

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	2.2	1.68
	2.08	1.65	Watch
	2.05	1.67
	2.11	1.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (2.07)	1.66 ↑ (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrey Chepelev
44.1%

Manuel Mazza
55.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

55.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

63.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrey Chepelev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Manuel Mazza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrey Chepelev than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Andrey Chepelev that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manuel Mazza than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Manuel Mazza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Andrey Chepelev - Manuel Mazza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Chepelev is ranked ATP: 421. Mazza is ranked ATP: 594.

Recent performances by Chepelev have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mazza is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Chepelev may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Mazza will win today's game, with odds of 1.66.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Chepelev won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrey Chepelev
ITF Tournaments
22.04.26	Andrey Chepelev - Giacomo Crisostomo	2:0 ✺
21.04.26	Andrey Chepelev - Filippo Pecorini	2:0 ✺
17.04.26	Andrey Chepelev - Moise Kouame	0:2 ✺
15.04.26	Andrey Chepelev - Lorenzo Rottoli	2:1 ✺
14.04.26	Andrey Chepelev - Giovanni Oradini	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWLWW
- Manuel Mazza
ITF Tournaments
22.04.26	Giammarco Gandolfi - Manuel Mazza	2:0 ✺
20.04.26	Michele Mecarelli - Manuel Mazza	0:2 ✺
15.04.26	Francesco Forti - Manuel Mazza	1:2 ✺
13.04.26	Manuel Mazza - Tim Handel	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
30.03.26	Manuel Mazza - Maxime Chazal	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWWL

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